Tuesday, June 27, 2023

LONDON — The impact of the fiercest-ever challenge to Vladimir Putin’s 23-year presidency was still reverberating among Moscow’s elites Monday as questions swirled over whether the Russian president had, for a moment at least, lost control of the country.

…the armed insurrection by the leader of the Wagner mercenary group has shattered the carefully crafted myth that was the cornerstone of Putin’s presidency — that he represented stability and strength — and many in the upper reaches of Russian politics and business wonder whether he can recover from it. Some even suggested that a search for Putin’s successor could be underway.

Putin showed the entire world and the elite he is no one and not capable of doing anything,” said one influential Moscow businessman. “It is a total collapse of his reputation.”

…said a Russian official close to top diplomatic circles
[:] “Control of the country has been partly lost.”

Members of the Moscow elite were grappling with how it had been possible for the renegade force of Wagner mercenaries to so easily seize control of the main command center for the Russian Army’s war in Ukraine in the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don without facing resistance, and then progress hundreds of miles along the road to Moscow before Yevgeniy Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group, eventually decided to turn his troops back.

“How is it possible for them to drive tanks hundreds of kilometers north toward Moscow and not be stopped?” said an associate of a Moscow billionaire. “There was no resistance.”

“When you have columns of thousands of people marching and no one can stop it, the loss of control is evident,” said one Russian billionaire…

…questions persisted about how Putin could have allowed Prigozhin, a close associate since the 1990s, to escape charges for mounting an armed insurrection — in particular since his forces shot down helicopters and a military plane, and killed at least 13 Russian servicemen, according to Russian military bloggers.

“This should be a terrorism case. These were very serious crimes,” said the first Moscow businessman. “But again, nothing has been done.”

Two Moscow business executives suggested Prigozhin’s mercenaries would not have been able to progress so far unhindered on the road to Moscow if part of the Russian security services had not been backing them.

“It was as if they were only acting to show the president they were doing something, but actually they were doing nothing, and the Russian president didn’t control anything,” the businessman said. 

Most fateful for the Russian president’s image was his decision to strike a deal with Prigozhin rather than risk a potentially bloody battle if the Wagner leader’s men reached Moscow’s outskirts, where special forces were preparing to defend the capital…

“Ukraine has been pressing forward toward Dnipro, Kherson and Bakhmut. In 1917, mutiny happened and Russia lost the First World War and the regime fell. In 1991 Russia lost the Afghan war and the regime fell. If we lose the Ukraine war, the regime will fall and we won’t be able to get it back.”