The index also suggests a comfortable margin for the Ducks on the scoreboard in this game.
Oregon is projected to be 26.3 points better than Purdue on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.
If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Ducks to cover a big spread against the Boilermakers.
That’s because Oregon is a 27.5 point favorite against Purdue, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, meaning it would need to win by 4 touchdowns to cover the line.
FanDuel set the total at 60.5 points for the game.
That was yesterday and that was FanDuel. Today on ESPN the line is 28.5, which means O would need MORE than 4 TDs to cover. ESPN's total is also 60.5. You have to fit a margin of 28.5 into an overall totaling 60-61. Example scores would be 44-16 (taking Purdoofus and 28.5 you would win); or 45-15 (you would lose).
But if you're going to bet this game you have to project the total and the spread into realistic football scores in combinations of 3's and 7's mostly. 44-16 is not a real score in tackle football. 45-15 is more a real score, 6 TDs and a FG for O, two TDs, one two-point conversion for Purdoofus. And you would lose that bet if you took P and the points.
For O, this is a classic trap game, beat no. 2 Ohio in a thriller at home, fly half-way across the country to play a terrible team that you're supposed to obliterate. Let down, P takes an early lead, the crowd gets into it, keeps it close, etc.
For P? "This is our Super Bowl". Puhleeze. Is P going to be all kercited against O? They've lost five straight, last week's game was a rivalry game I assume, for the Old Broken Bucket or something. Purdue-Oregon is not a rivalry.
However. But. In last week's OT loss 50-49 at Illinoise, P never led once the entire game! They didn't get an early lead, they were down 24-3 at the half, they didn't get any lead ever. Illinoise relaxed, that could happen again. It's not going to be a shoot-out with the "Ducks", despite P's 49 last week. 49 is BY FAR the most points P has scored since the first game, a 49-0 win over Indiana STATE (Larry Bird didn't play). Aside from that pre-season they have scored 7, 21, 10 and 6. In those four games combined, they didn't get 49!
Who's going to be into this game? Neither team that I can figure. Both teams going through the motions favors the dog when the spread is twenty-eight and a fucking half!
The game is tomorrow night. I am tilted but I haven't capsized. Pass.
