The Russian Central Bank has forecast essentially zero economic growth for the Russian economy through 2016 with higher inflation. Capital is fleeing.The ruble has lost one-quarter of its value against the dollar and euro. 70% chance of recession in Russia next year. Overall, a "miserable outlook" (Bloomberg) and a consequence of Western sanctions and falling oil prices. Putin's (third) term as president ends in 2017 and I wondered if the Bank's forecast that sanctions will remain in effect until 2017 was a hint that Russian behavior would change with a change of presidents (If Putin decides not to seek a fourth term.). And vicey-versey, the forecast seemed to suggest that the Russian Central Bank thought Putin would only double-down on Ukraine.
That's what the Italian foreign minister, I think it was, that's what he thinks too. He, don't remember his name, said the sanctions have not changed Putin's behavior which is the purpose of sanctions. No, I don't think that was the purpose of the sanctions. The West, NATO, America were never going to intervene militarily to stop Putin in Ukraine but there literally would be a "price" (Obama's word) that Putin would have to pay, sort of a toll-gate charge as the tanks crossed the border. We, the West, will let him take Ukraine and we will extract the toll.
Putin acknowledged that the sanctions were hurting in his War and Peace address to the Valdai Club. Sure appreciate Gorbachev directing our attention to that! Only took me about an hour and a half to read the goddamned thing. Jesus Christ.
Missed the part where Gorbachev said there was some good news in there for the West.
Putin thinks the world's actors need structure. He referred at some length in the speech to the post-
World War II structure. He referred to the post-World War II structure longingly it seemed to me as I read it and thought about it and re-read sections while my eyes grew bleary from staring at the computer screen and my lower back tightened up from sitting in the same position. Longingly, I say.
Putin said he didn't want "spheres of influence" but as I recall he only said that once (and I am not going to go back and check) whereas he mentioned the post-Potsdam world more than once, emphasized it, seemed to long for it, and you can't have the post-Potsdam world without spheres of influence so I think Putin thinks a return to the post-Potsdam spheres-of-influence world would be swell. That a new Cold War would be swell.
Putin knows that Potsdam has left the building along with Uncle Joe but the speech, his and his cronies other speeches and writings and his invasions of Ukraine suggest to me that Putin thinks he
can time-travel, that by invading Georgia, by invading Ukraine he can recreate that Golden Era. That golden era of the Soviet Union, of Soviet domination over eastern Europe, of Cold War with the
West. That's what Gorby thinks too!
And that appears to be what the Obamas think Putin thinks. There is a report today, I think it was even in the quasi-official New York Times, that Obama has concluded he can never have a constructive relationship with Putin and that the American Cold War strategy of "containment" has reentered the building. That seems to me to be a wise and a realpolitik assessment on the part of the president. Containment of Putin is the structure the world's actors need.
Gorbachev, Putin, and Obama. I think we have achieved ontological certainty that we have a new Cold War.
Farewell to Russia.
The difficulty is going to be where to contain Putin. Putin and his cronies hate the old containment. Putin's predecessors hated containment. But I think Putin would love being "contained" in the post-Potsdam world. He'd love to have Poland and Hungary and Czechoslovakia and the Baltics--and East Germany--in Russia's camp, or at least not in NATO. I don't think, but it's I don't think, Putin's ambition extends as far as did communism's. He would be "lost" (his word) without Russia, he's not a warm-climate type (his phrase), he and his cronies have longed only for a "Greater Russia" uniting the Russian-speaking peoples but the post-Potsdam world he longs for encompassed Polish-speaking people, German-speaking people and the rest.
Today, NATO encompasses Polish-speaking people, German-speaking people and the rest and America and the West are treaty-bound to stop Putin militarily at Vilnius (I don't agree with that but it's I don't agree). Before, that is post-Potsdam, that is in the Golden Era, that is in the first Cold War, Putin's predecessors were ceded Vilnius--and Warsaw and East Berlin and the rest.
I bet (but...) Putin makes a move on the Baltics eventually, they're low-hanging fruit, in the near-beyond, NATO be damned. The same kind of thing he did in Ukraine, destabilizing at first and then invading. As the Soviets did, Putin is going to test the West, he's going to pick all the low-hanging fruit he can in the--cold climate--near-beyond. He is going to do that at least until the West is willing to go to war with him.
The prospect of war may not even contain him. He and his cronies think a nuclear war can be won! They think they can win one, and they think they can win a nuclear war with the United States! Well,
Farewell to Russia.
That's what the Italian foreign minister, I think it was, that's what he thinks too. He, don't remember his name, said the sanctions have not changed Putin's behavior which is the purpose of sanctions. No, I don't think that was the purpose of the sanctions. The West, NATO, America were never going to intervene militarily to stop Putin in Ukraine but there literally would be a "price" (Obama's word) that Putin would have to pay, sort of a toll-gate charge as the tanks crossed the border. We, the West, will let him take Ukraine and we will extract the toll.
Putin acknowledged that the sanctions were hurting in his War and Peace address to the Valdai Club. Sure appreciate Gorbachev directing our attention to that! Only took me about an hour and a half to read the goddamned thing. Jesus Christ.
Missed the part where Gorbachev said there was some good news in there for the West.
Putin thinks the world's actors need structure. He referred at some length in the speech to the post-
World War II structure. He referred to the post-World War II structure longingly it seemed to me as I read it and thought about it and re-read sections while my eyes grew bleary from staring at the computer screen and my lower back tightened up from sitting in the same position. Longingly, I say.
Putin said he didn't want "spheres of influence" but as I recall he only said that once (and I am not going to go back and check) whereas he mentioned the post-Potsdam world more than once, emphasized it, seemed to long for it, and you can't have the post-Potsdam world without spheres of influence so I think Putin thinks a return to the post-Potsdam spheres-of-influence world would be swell. That a new Cold War would be swell.
Putin knows that Potsdam has left the building along with Uncle Joe but the speech, his and his cronies other speeches and writings and his invasions of Ukraine suggest to me that Putin thinks he
can time-travel, that by invading Georgia, by invading Ukraine he can recreate that Golden Era. That golden era of the Soviet Union, of Soviet domination over eastern Europe, of Cold War with the
West. That's what Gorby thinks too!
And that appears to be what the Obamas think Putin thinks. There is a report today, I think it was even in the quasi-official New York Times, that Obama has concluded he can never have a constructive relationship with Putin and that the American Cold War strategy of "containment" has reentered the building. That seems to me to be a wise and a realpolitik assessment on the part of the president. Containment of Putin is the structure the world's actors need.
Gorbachev, Putin, and Obama. I think we have achieved ontological certainty that we have a new Cold War.
Farewell to Russia.
The difficulty is going to be where to contain Putin. Putin and his cronies hate the old containment. Putin's predecessors hated containment. But I think Putin would love being "contained" in the post-Potsdam world. He'd love to have Poland and Hungary and Czechoslovakia and the Baltics--and East Germany--in Russia's camp, or at least not in NATO. I don't think, but it's I don't think, Putin's ambition extends as far as did communism's. He would be "lost" (his word) without Russia, he's not a warm-climate type (his phrase), he and his cronies have longed only for a "Greater Russia" uniting the Russian-speaking peoples but the post-Potsdam world he longs for encompassed Polish-speaking people, German-speaking people and the rest.
Today, NATO encompasses Polish-speaking people, German-speaking people and the rest and America and the West are treaty-bound to stop Putin militarily at Vilnius (I don't agree with that but it's I don't agree). Before, that is post-Potsdam, that is in the Golden Era, that is in the first Cold War, Putin's predecessors were ceded Vilnius--and Warsaw and East Berlin and the rest.
I bet (but...) Putin makes a move on the Baltics eventually, they're low-hanging fruit, in the near-beyond, NATO be damned. The same kind of thing he did in Ukraine, destabilizing at first and then invading. As the Soviets did, Putin is going to test the West, he's going to pick all the low-hanging fruit he can in the--cold climate--near-beyond. He is going to do that at least until the West is willing to go to war with him.
The prospect of war may not even contain him. He and his cronies think a nuclear war can be won! They think they can win one, and they think they can win a nuclear war with the United States! Well,
Farewell to Russia.
