Friday, January 29, 2016

Slippery Oil.

Falling crude oil prices; negative headlines.
Falling crude oil prices; not proportional relief at the gas pump.

Those have been recurring sources of puzzlement here in the last year.

I have noticed very recently a spate of news reports on this theme and yesterday heard a National Public Radio report in which two or three or four experts were interviewed.

1. Falling oil prices are a net wash for the economy as a whole with other negative consequences: lack of hiring in the oil exploration biz; lack of investment in "infrastructure."

2. Falling oil prices are a net positive for the American economy, no doubt about that. The economy would be a lot worse if oil prices had stayed high.

3. Slowdown in China's economy...? The NPR host commented on that: the American economy has weathered the Chinese slump pretty darn well.

4. Falling oil prices have led to a gasoline savings for the average American family of $700 in a year. But the average American family didn't spend that extra $700 during the holiday buying season which was weaker than expected. Why not? The expert didn't know.

There is no good explanation for this. There are, at least, these four partial and conflicting explanations.