More than any political candidate in memory, Donald Trump's value proposition to voters is simple and crystal clear: He's a winner.
...
"We will have so much winning if I get elected," he assures us, "that you may get bored with winning."
...
This message has proven astonishingly resilient, to the point that the entire US political class is flummoxed. Attacks just bounce off the guy. What could ever bring him down?
...
Rather, the seeds of Trump's destruction can be found in his greatest strength. To put it bluntly: If your value proposition is that you're a winner, your value evaporates the minute you're no longer winning. Losing refutes a winner, and no one wins forever.
...[I]n close, ambiguous political contests, preferences and expectations are tightly related and mutually reinforcing. There's a "bandwagon effect" that sees voters, especially low-information voters, flock to the candidate most expected to win.
The research he's referring to, conducted by political scientist Larry Bartels (now at Vanderbilt University) and published in 1985, found that in close, ambiguous political contests, preferences and expectations are tightly related and mutually reinforcing. There's a "bandwagon effect" that sees voters, especially low-information voters, flock to the candidate most expected to win.
I don't know how much we should rely on 30-year-old research about voter preferences, given the ways American politics has changed even in the past few years. But I do think Collins gets at something essential.
...
Trump's vulnerability (like his strength!) is that his appeal is entirely personal, entirely based on the expectation that he's a winner who will win. He's an alpha male, the top dog, the guy with the balls and the leverage to get the good deals, the guy who can't be intimidated, the self-made, independent guy who's not afraid to say what everybody's thinking. "I play to people's fantasies," he wrote in The Art of the Deal. "People may not always think big themselves, but they can still get very excited by those who do. That's why a little hyperbole never hurts."
That hyperbole has been fervently embraced by his supporters, independent of any policy positions. Policy positions are simply not the point.
...
His rhetoric is full of dominance displays. That's what all the insults are about. They work because he's winning.
...
Trump has built a life around being constantly validated, and his primary run so far has only seen him in that mode: winning, punching down at weaker opponents, being showered with adoration.
...
Sooner or later, everyone in politics is humbled. Everyone loses, at least a news cycle or two. Every politician has to eat shit, more than once...
...
He legendarily never forgets a slight. Twenty-five years ago, Vanity Fair editor Grayson Carter called Trump a "short-fingered vulgarian," and to this day it rankles Trump. He sends Carter pictures of his fingers, insisting they are normal size.
...
He can't let go of any slight. His whole life has been devoted to refuting those who doubt the awesomeness of Trump.
Trump supporters may find Trump less charming as a loser
The kind of persona-based, expectations-based support Trump is receiving works as long as it's working. It wins as long as it's winning.
"I always win" is a brittle claim. All it takes to disprove it is a single loss.
And eventually, Trump will lose something...
