Tuesday, October 01, 2019

Trump Is Right, Bolton Is Wrong

It becomes my execrable duty, as I see it, to reiterate that Donald Trump has worked a miracle on the Korean Peninsula. Here are the conflicting views in the press:

Choe Son Hui, North Korea's first vice minister of foreign affairs, said the two nations will have preliminary contact on Friday before holding working-level talks on Saturday.

In a statement released by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency, Choe expressed optimism over the outcome of the meeting but did not say where it would take place.

'It is my expectation that the working-level negotiations would accelerate the positive development of the DPRK-U.S. relations,' Choe said in the statement, using an abbreviation for North Korea's formal name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

The U.S. confirmed the talks.

'I can confirm that U.S. and DPRK officials plan to meet within the next week. I do not have further details to share on the meeting,' said State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus, who is traveling with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Rome.
-Daily Mail

That's good. GOOD!

SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea launched at least one projectile toward waters near Japan early Wednesday, just hours after announcing it had agreed to resume long-stalled talks with the United States over its nuclear weapons program.

The projectile was launched from near Wonsan, a city east of Pyongyang, the North Korean capital, the South Korean military said in a statement. It gave no further details, such as the type of weapon fired or how far it flew.

Japan said North Korea had launched two ballistic missiles, one flying far enough to fall in its exclusive economic zone. Wednesday’s test was the first time a North Korean missile had landed in Japanese waters in nearly two years, evoking memories of a period when the Japanese public was awakened to alarms warning of potential missile landings.
-NYT

That is bad. Ish.


Ayesha Rascoe
@ayesharascoe
.
@AmbJohnBolton
 says US shouldn’t be focused on summits w North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, but should think about regime change in North Korea and potentially military force to stop the nuclear program
9:36 AM · Sep 30, 2019 from Washington, DC·Twitter for iPhone

Trump was correct to shit can Bolton. Bolton's proposal is troglodyte.

David Nakamura
@DavidNakamura
North Korea and United States to resume nuclear talks Saturday. Kim Jong Un looking for another possible shot with Trump ahead of elections in US and South Korea in 2020, per ⁦
@simondenyer

North Korea tests missile soon after announcing resumption of nuclear talks with U.S.
washingtonpost.com
9:10 AM · Oct 1, 2019·Twitter

That sounds bad. It is not even bad-ish. It is predictable.

Mark Knoller
@markknoller
In first "unvarnished" speech since being ousted as National Security Advisor,
@AmbJohnBolton
 warns that North Korea "will never give up its nuclear weapons voluntarily." Addressing
@CSIS
, Bolton says he thinks Kim Jong Un "will do whatever he can" to keep his nuclear weapons.

9:24 AM · Sep 30, 2019·Twitter

Bolton is RIGHT, there. And that is NOT BAD. Now I man-splain. When I was in college, in a course on Soviet-American relations our professor asked us how bad whatever the most recent build-up in the Soviet nuclear arsenal was. I raised my hand and the professor called on me. "It is the will of the Soviet Union that we should focus on, not the build-up in a vacuum. If they had the WILL to strike us they could have at any time in the last fifteen years. This build-up is to maintain strategic parity, it is not a signal that they are about to launch a first strike." The professor was nodding throughout my answer like he was in a call-and-response in a Baptist church.

In graduate school at MIT, a professor in a class on Soviet-American relations told us, "It is not that the Soviets wake up each day and ask themselves, ‘Should we hit 'em today?’ These things happen in a context."

Steve Bannon said when he was in the White House that we just may have to live with a nuclear DPRK because in no remotely plausible scenario of how war on the peninsula would play out would not tens of millions of South Koreans be killed. That was STEVE BANNON.

Bannon and my two professors (and I) focused on the will of our adversary, the Soviet Union. Bolton and plenty of others in the '70's focused on payload, range, accuracy, etc. Read again Choe Son Hui's remarks:

'It is my expectation that the working-level negotiations would accelerate the positive development of the DPRK-U.S. relations,' 

There is no will there to "surround Guam with a ring of fire," no will there to strike at any U.S. territory. The North fires rockets because it wants attention. It has the will to make peace, not war. Not on the U.S., not on Japan, not on the South. As Bannon and Trump alone in the White House recognized, the North is going to become a nuclear power. We have two choices, to unleash "fire and fury the likes of which the world has never seen." That is one choice and the DPRK would be defeated, the DPRK would be obliterated and the U.S. could say "We Won." Nice victory. Only 20,000,000 killed. But that is one choice, that is Bolton's choice. The other choice is perhaps best captured in a rhetorical question: "Do you not defeat your enemy by making him your friend?" That is the answer of Trump, that was the answer of Bannon, and the answer to that rhetorical questions is "Yes!", and that is the answer that Trump will give Kim Jong-un. That is the answer Kim has given, repeatedly, to the Americans. "Trust us," Kim says and Bolton blows a gasket. "WE CAN'T TRUST HIM! IT'S A TRAP! IF KIM WERE SERIOUS HE WOULDN'T BE SHOOTING OFF ROCKETS! REGIME CHANGE! REGIME CHANGE!" That is the troglodyte position, the 20,000,000 casualty position. Kim Jong-un is sincere; he does not have the will to attack, or even to threaten to attack again, the United States. Kim Jong-un says he prefers to "work with Trump." Trump says he and Kim "fell in love." Trump, in other words, trusts Kim. I do too. There will be no formal peace treaty between the U.S. and the DPRK. Kim will not give up his nuclear program and he will become a nuclear power, not to blackmail the U.S. or the South or Japan but as a deterrent. The same way the U.S. has had a nuclear deterrent since the end of World War II; the same way Britain and France, and Israel and India and Pakistan have nuclear deterrents. Excellent deterrents, nukes.

But because there will not be a formal treaty of peace and denuclearization there will be no Nobel Peace Prize for Trump and Kim. No Nobel Peace Prize as Henry Kissinger and Le Duc Tho received for signing a peace treaty that North Vietnam had not the will to keep and did not keep and the Vietnam War continued. The Nobel Committee wants to see the paper. There is not going to be any paper but there will be, there has been for over a year, peace on the Korean peninsula. A piece of paper does not make peace. The will to make peace makes peace. That will is what Kim Jong-un and
Donald Trump have and there will be peace. And that is the ultimate prize.