Sunday, October 23, 2022

Observations

That was my most successful financial football Saturday ever. $20! Maybe $25 (what happens if a result comes in exactly on the line?) Thanks almost exclusively (the only game I missed was Pitt covering 5) to the absurd Texas-Oklahoma State line. I don't know how much the House has control over bettor behavior after it sets the initial line. It's bettor behavior not the House line-setters in a vacuum that determines the fluctuations in the line during the run-up week. You'll typically see a .5 or 1 point adjustment in a day, a maximum of say 2.5 over the course of the week, depending on bettor behavior. I would think that the House would have some risk triggers that would stop the money from distorting to a ridiculous number. It's not just the money the House has at stake (although that is their Job1), it is also their credibility. Every college football fan pays attention to the line even if they never invest. How does the market value my team? Fans get PISSED when their favorite is made a dog. The money on the Texas-OK State game was coming from UT partisans. That wasn't rational or sound betting. It was betting with their Orangebloods. As a blue and gold blood I happily saw it and jumped on it.

Brian Kelly knows how to get a team up for a statement win. No overstating LSU’s 45-20 beat down of Ole' Miss. They were no. 7 in country. Kelly flat out-coached Lane Kiffin. Lane train got derailed in Red Stick.

PSU had a statement win over Minnehaha. 45-17! Penn Haters were worried about this one. I weren’t but I didn’t expect a tail-lasching like this.

Excruciating loss for 14th Syracuse. I knew Clemson was going to win that game. Until half-time. “Orangemen” hung with them to the last whistle.

Whaddup with the best team money can buy? TAMU is 3-4 on the season and has lost three straight after getting beaten by South Carolina-Must-Be-Destroyed. It's the SEC so things don't ease up for them. Besides a penultimate game versus UMass they have Ole' Miss next week followed by Florida, then at Albern and they close against LSU.

UMG OMG. Dook scored the last 28 points of the game, 21 in the 4th, off all the turnovers of course. Have you ever seen anything like that? Eight t.o.’s., 5 bugs loose on the rug, three other-ways. Broken fundamentals in Miami Gardens. Didn’t expect this wretchedness even in a new coach’s first year. It’s alarming.

 Allow me…Hell, I’m gonna say it whether yinz allow me or not: the “Heat’s” win was…”just one game.”