Biden was -2 in the June Saint Anselm's College poll.
A University of New Hampshire poll found that 49% of likely voters in the state say they would vote for Harris if the election were held today, while 43% would vote for Trump. Another poll, conducted by the Saint Anselm College Survey Center, found that Harris leads Trump 50% to 44% among registered voters.
This to me is the key finding:
Voters appear to have decided their thoughts on Trump, one way or the other. In June, the Saint Anselm poll found that he had about the same favorability rating as he does now. He has not lost support, but rather Harris has consolidated some of the voters that had abandoned Biden. Trump led Biden by 44% to 42% in June, and Harris has improved over Biden by taking four points from minor candidates and 4 points from people who said they were “unsure” of who they would vote for.
Trump's high water mark in his two elections is 47.8%. He has never cracked even 48%. Trump voters in NH haven't changed: They were at 44% against Biden in June in the Saint Anselm poll; they are at 44% now against kamala. In the UNH poll Trump is at 43%. It is an unshakable level of support, but one with a reinforced concrete ceiling.
