Saturday, August 24, 2024

Frank Luntz signals 

RFK Jr’s backing 

could help Trump win 

battlegrounds

“It’s probably worth about 1 percent for Trump and that 1 percent could be everything if it’s in the swing states...and a single percent can make the difference in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.” 

I respect Luntz. trust luntz. I don't know about that, though. Shoot, I i guess yeah, he's right. If it's Nixon-JFK '60 or either of trumpie's two losses, 1%, if Luntz is correct and trumpie gets 1% from RFK, Jr. that would make a diff. It's not going to be a 1% race in those states, however. Obviously, all eyes are on Pa. An extra 1% would not have won Pa. for trumpie in 2020, however. Nor would it have won Michigan. An extra 1% would have won Wisconsin for him. 

Right now, I predict all of those states will be won by kamala by over 1%, and I predict Arizona will be for Harris (not one of Luntz' three states that would be affected by RFK, Jr.). At this point, I predict trumpie will win two states won by Biden, Georgia and Nevada. Wins in Pa. Mi. and Wi. would give kamala the presidency with 270 EVs. If, as I also predict, she wins Az. she would win the presidency with 281 EVs.