On the day when the betting favorite abruptly switched from Kamala to trumpie, Nate Silver had this to say about the polling state of the race:
🕒 Last update: 3 p.m., Wednesday, October 2. A good day of polling for Kamala Harris, especially in higher-quality surveys. 😁But you can see that there just isn’t much movement in the model from day to day. That’s because there’s been quite a lot of state polling recently, and no major campaign events for several weeks — the VP debate only barely counts as a major event — so we have a good idea of where the race stands.
The Silvery CURRENT national polling average share is Kamala 49.4% trumpie 45.9%, +3.6.
In the Electoral College CURRENT Kamala 276.
ABC/538 FORECAST for Nov. 5:
Kamala 51.6% trumpie 48.4%, +3.2. *Violates Publocc Rule One as amended by 0.9%*
Electoral College FORECAST for Nov. 5, Kamala 281.
