Trump Surges Ahead of Kamala Harris in Nate Silver's Forecast

...Nate Silver, whose presidential model, which tracks polling data and electoral trends, now favors the Republican to win the election.

... the Silver Bulletin model show Trump holding a slight edge in the Electoral College, with a 50.2 percent chance of winning compared to Vice President Kamala Harris' 49.5 percent...It is Trump's first lead in the model since September 19.

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The updated forecast shows momentum shifting in Trump's favor after several strong polling weeks in swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. ...

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Silver's model shows that Trump has gained 1.6 percentage points in Wisconsin, 0.9 points in Michigan and 0.4 points in Pennsylvania over the past week. ...

... Georgia and Arizona are leaning slightly toward Trump, while North Carolina is seen as a critical state that could swing in either direction​.