Volume One
Volume Two
Volume Three
Volume Four
Subject to updates.
Friday, August 30, 2024
Mr. "RIGHT ABOUT EVERYTHING!!!"🙄
Aug. 5:
Aug. 30:
"The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit an all time high of 41,585.21 before closing at 41,563.08, up 0.6%. It was the blue-chip index’s fourth record close this week and 26th this year."
WOLF! WOLF!
This Nails It. It's Weird.
Who does that? I really want you to think about this for a minute. Do you know anyone in your life who would pose for a photo in a cemetery giving the thumbs-up?
I do not.
Interesting
Harris got a polling bounce before her convention, not after
Trump got a small boost after the RNC, but Harris's candidacy reset the race.
Ever Heard of New York Times Pitchbot?
I haven't subscribed to NYT for, oh about a year. Their McDonalds commercial writ large Editorial Board, their twee double-headed endorsement in 2020,
their "quasi-official" entitlement, their forced homogenization of differences between Democrats and Republicans, their maniacal mission to listen to Trump low-lifes, to give voice to those best left dumb, to point out the "fun" of Trump rallies, their "Here's what you need to know" pedanticism, Nicholas Kristof. ...My indictment is lengthy.
Anyway, New York Times Pitchbot parodies all things Timesian:
Okay, so that's the template. The template is the Times' template. More:
So he, the creator of New York Times Pitchbot is a math professor, takes these Timesian things and parodies them, or, sometimes, they parody themselves. Viz.
The Times self-parody'ing:
Doug J. Balloon, or Mr. Balloon as the Times' stylist would insist he be called, expanded into other fecund fields:
I hope Kamala's next sit-down is with New York Times Pitchbot.
Thursday, August 29, 2024
ABC/538 Weighted Average National: Kamala +3.5
Pa. Kamala +1.8
Az. Kamala +0.4
Ga. Kamala +0.7
Mi. Kamala +3
Mn. Kamala +9
Nv. Kamala +1.4
NC trumpie +0.2
Va. Kamala +3
Wi. Kamala +3.6
ABC/538 EVs Kamala 303
Bronze
Pennsylvania may be a problem for Harris
The Electoral College/popular vote gap is increasing in post-DNC data.
...Kamala Harris had one of her worst days in some time in our forecast on Thursday despite gaining in our national polling average.
Harris is ahead by 3.8 points in our national poll tracker — up from 2.3 points the day before the Democratic Convention began — which does suggest some sort of convention bounce. However, she’s fallen to a 47.3 percent chance of winning the Electoral College versus 52.4 percent for Donald Trump.
...
There’s another, longer-term concern for Harris, though: it’s been a while since we’ve seen a poll showing her ahead in Pennsylvania, which is the tipping-point state more than a third of time in our model. Today, in fact, we added one post-DNC poll showing Pennsylvania as a tie, and another (conducted during the DNC) showing either a tie or Trump +1, depending on what version you prefer.
The model puts a lot of weight on this recent data because of all the changes in the race. And you can see why it thinks this is a problem for her: if she’s only tied in Pennsylvania now, during what should be one of her stronger polling periods, that implies being a slight underdog in November.
Harris has had weak numbers in Pennsylvania recently
The 2024 Pennsylvania presidential general election polls in our model and how influential they are
Okay, well, that bottom line hypothetical, I reject. I mean, yes, I agree that if she wins the pop vote by 1%-2% then yes, of course, the odds are great that she would lose in the EC, duh. My point of disagreement, my point of agreement with Stuart Stevens, is that the election in the pop vote is not going to be nearly that tight. It's going to be greater than Biden's margin and that was 4.4%!
I entirely agree with Bronze that Kamala has a Pa. problem. And the commonwealth is, well The Keystone.
RCP Aggregate
National: Kamala +1.8 That's up.
Top Battlegrounds: Kamala +0.6% (first time I can remember her leading trumpie in aggregate in the battleground states)
Battleground states:
Wi. Kamala +1.9
Pa. Kamala +0.8. First time that I can remember that she has led Pa. by RCP's reckoning. Pa. with the other blue wall states gives her the presidency.
Mi. Kamala +2.3%
Az. trumpie +0.4
Nv. trumpie +0.3
NC trumpie +0.3
Ga. tie 48.1%-48.1%. Don't ever remember Ga. being tied in RCP.
Electoral Votes: kamala 270
Now, THIS is really interesting. The polls today show a marked change for kamala. But Las Vegas investors actually favor trumpie with their money, 49.3%-49.2%. I trust the people who put their money where their mouths are more than the polls! I wish it wasn't so, it is the most infinitesimal amount, it may not be so tomorrow, but tonight, I agree with the bettors that kamala is the slightest underdog to win the presidency.
Ah! I actually had a similar thought*
Stuart Stevens, a member of the anti-Trump Republican group, the Lincoln Project, and a strategist for Mitt Romney’s failed 2012 presidential bid, challenged widespread predictions of a close election by suggesting that Trump’s approach would eventually alienate voters and enable Harris to win convincingly. (1)
“There’s been a lot of talk – it’s sort of a universal truth – that this election is going to be close,” he told CNN. “I have a different opinion. I think it’ll be close till about October 20th, and then I think it’s going to be like Carter versus Reagan, that the bottom is going to start to drop out [of Trump’s campaign].(2)
“I think this is going to be a race that Democrats are going to win by more than Biden did,” he added.(3)
Updated:
1) I agree--in the popular vote. In the EC I can't see Kamala getting more than 303 EV's. 303 would require her to win Pa., Mi., Wi., Mn., Ga., Az., and Nv.--and she would still fall short of Biden's 306. To top Biden she would have to win NC in addition.
2) Why Oct. 20? That's cuttin' it a little close, Stu! In any event, the bottom is not dropping out like Carter-Reagan! You mean an EC landslide, too??? 489 EV's?! No.
3) I agree completely that she will win the pop. vote more decisively than did Biden.
One paragraph:
...
Then this paragraph:
The U.S. diplomatic scramble, combined with displays of military force, shows that the United States is determined to prevent a wider conflagration — and prepared to strike powerfully in support of Israel, if necessary.
Completely different. I'm for the first paragraph and four square against the second. I'm not fighting Israel's war against Iran.
Investing College Tackle Football
I don't bet on my team, but if they weren't my team I would take Kent State to cover 24.5 against my "Panthers" Saturday.
Nebraska -27.5 UTEP. Nickel on UTEP.
Georgia (1)-Clemson (14). Dang. Marquee game in Week 1! Ugadawgs -13.5. No play.
Flarida-Miami Gardens (19). Gardeners -2.5
Half Ass U (10) -16.5-BC Pigeons. No play.
Couch Burn-Paterno-Sandusky U -7.5. No play...I don't think. If I played it would be Lasch and the over.
City Champions League Matches
MANCHESTER CITY
Home opponents: Inter, Club Brugge, Feyenoord. Sparta Prague
Away opponents: PSG, Juventus, Sporting Lisbon, Slovan Bratislava
I'll take that every day of the week and twice on Sundays.
National (WSJ (quality), 8-24/8-28, 1500 REG (not LIKELY) voters, 2.5 M.o.E. Kamala 48% trumpie 47%
There is NO evidence of a post-convention bounce for kamala.
trumpie reposts QAnon
WWG1WGA! RETRUTH IF YOU AGREE.
The acronym is short for the QAnon slogan: “where we go one, we go all.”
He similarly reposted another QAnon phrase:
“nothing can stop what is coming.”
In yet another incendiary communication, Trump posted manipulated images of some of his favourite targets – including the entrepreneur Bill Gates, Anthony Fauci, who spearheaded the US vaccine effort against Covid-19, Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi – imprisoned and wearing orange jumpsuits.
The post – originally posted by another user – featured photos of Harris and Hillary Clinton alongside the comment: “Funny how blowjobs impacted both their careers differently…”
On 18 August, he shared a video by the Dilley Meme Team, a group of rightwing content creators, to the soundtrack of a parody of the Alanis Morrisette song Ironic that contained the lines, “She spent her whole damn life down on her knees”, as an image of Brown appeared behind a picture of the US vice-president and her husband, Doug Emhoff.
(The Guardian)
Advantage Trump
The quality polls released yesterday and today give scant, if any at all, evidence of a post-convention bounce for Kamala Walz and no comfort at all that she will win the presidency in the Electoral College.
Emerson (quality) Swings
Yes, toss-ups all and all within M.o.E. But we torture ourselves, take the meaningless leads as set in stone and construct our Electoral College map:
Official U.S. Army Statement on Trump-Arlington Incident
Arlington National Cemetery routinely hosts public wreath laying ceremonies at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier for individuals and groups who submit requests in advance. ANC conducts nearly 3,000 such public ceremonies a year without incident.Participants in the August 26th ceremony and the subsequent Section 60 visit were made aware of federal laws, Army regulations and DoD policies, which clearly prohibit political activities on cemetery grounds. An ANC employee who attempted to ensure adherence to these rules was abruptly pushed aside. Consistent with the decorum expected at ANC, this employee acted with professionalism and avoided further disruption. The incident was reported to the JBM-HH police department, but the employee subsequently decided not to press charges. Therefore, the Army considers this matter closed.This incident was unfortunate, and it is also unfortunate that the ANC employee and her professionalism has been unfairly attacked. ANC is a national shrine to the honored dead of the Armed Forces, and its dedicated staff will continue to ensure public ceremonies are conducted with the dignity and respect the nation’s fallen deserve.Respectfully,U.S. Army Public Affairs
The vice president's small lead was fueled by big shifts among some key demographic groups traditionally crucial for Democrats, including Hispanic and Black voters and young people. Among those with annual incomes of less than $20,000, in the biggest change, a three-point Trump edge over Biden in June has become a 23-point Harris advantage over Trump in August.😳
Now THAT is amazing. In the Suffolk/USA Today poll released today that has Kamala with a 5-point lead nationally.
"It’s not Trump who worries me as much as it is some of the people who support him."
The Arlington National Cemetery woman who was verbally and physically abused declined to press charges for fear of retaliation by Trump supporters. Her fears are shared by this Black reporter for the Arizona Republic. It is not just Trump, they are the problem.
I'll never attend another Trump rally, in Arizona or anywhere
From a condom seller to an angry woman pounding on my car window, Trump attracts supporters to his rallies who are - how do I say this? - 'weird.'
I’ve covered politics for much of the last 20 years, including Trump campaign rallies, and I’ll never do it again.
It’s not about Trump.
...
...Trump’s supporters are often, well, weird.
I don’t say that lightly. ...
...
...some of my closest friends are Trump supporters. I attend a predominantly white evangelical Christian church, and Trump bumper stickers aren’t hard to spot. (Although, as one of the few African American congregants, I’m probably just as easy to pick out in the parking lot.)
These are good people who oppose abortion from the depths of their souls, and they can speak reasonably about complicated issues. To have the opportunity to learn from them is a privilege, even as we disagree on whether Trump is fit to guide the nation.
My problem is with the Trumpers who — how can I put this delicately? — like to get a little rowdy.
You know, the ones who show up at polling places armed for combat? Or the ones who tried to take over the U.S. Capitol in a deadly riot? Or the ones who carried tiki torches through Charlottesville?
Sometimes, the people at Trump rallies are kind of funny.
Consider the older Black woman, an entrepreneur of the highest order, who was selling Trump condoms outside an event in Milwaukee in 2016. The prophylactics were $5 each, and they said “Trump” in big, bold letters.
She was screaming, “Trump condoms! … Next time you get that rump, think of Trump!”
Weird.
I don’t know what else to call it.
Or the white woman selling Trump T-shirts and Confederate flags from the back of her truck at a Phoenix rally in 2020.
I was sitting in my car across from her tent, talking on the phone to a source, when she came over to my window, knocking violently, demanding to know what I was doing there and threatening to call the police.
She had no authority to question me. And given the state of race relations in the nation at the time, she was trying to use the police to bully me for simply existing within her line of sight.
Again, weird.
For me, I can’t understand how conservatives of conscience could allow a candidate like Trump to represent them. Or at least why they aren’t louder in demanding he stop dog whistling to these weirdos.
So, I won’t be going to the border on Thursday or the rally on Friday.
I love my job.
But I love my safety and sanity more.
Trump doesn't worry me as much as they do
I’ll watch the videos of what he says, and if there’s good reason for me to give my opinion, I will.
Again, it’s my job.
But it’s not my job to put myself in harm’s way, even if I still regret not buying one of those condoms as a souvenir. (I just wasn’t about to walk past the “Hillary for Prison” T-shirts with AK-47s printed near her name to get one.)
It’s not Trump who worries me as much as it is some of the people who support him.
They’re the reason I don’t intend to ever go to another Trump rally.
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