Sunday, January 03, 2016

What if Trump had run as a Democrat?

He was a Democrat from 2001-2009 and before 1987.

Fivethirtyeight says Trump-2015/2016 reminds them strongly of George Wallace, 1968. Wallace was a Democrat who later ran as an independent. Wallace had cross-party populist racial appeal to white people. He appealed almost exclusively the Southerners. Okay, there is some ascriptive appeal to Trump's anti-Mexican, anti-Chinese, anti-Muslim messages, it is sort of populist, and he seems to have a lot of support in "SEC country." And, Bernie Sanders thinks he can get some cross-over support from Trumpets!

No, I don't think the Wallace comparison advances things. Trump leads in New Hampshire, is close to the top in Iowa. Wallace's was a purer racial campaign. It was also purely anti-black. I don't see Trump as appealing to whites as anti-black. I cannot think of seeing a single black person in any of his audiences, though! That, I think, is a function of running as a Republican. Which means Trump should have some black support if he had run as a Democrat. Which means he should have some support among white Demos if he had run as a Demo. Which means he's not "contained," my word, in the Republican Party.

Is he? Would he have some black support if? And would he have some support among white Demos?

No, I don't think so. I don't think you see, or at least I haven't seen, black people at his rallies because his anti- messages are too close for comfort. I don't think there are many Jews who support Trump either and Trump hasn't said anything remotely anti-semitic.

It's his policy pronouncements. Trump would have far less chance at the Democratic nomination than he does at the Republican. The Democratic Party in 1968 was split racially, regionally, culturally and ideologically. The '68 election ushered in realignment. Henceforth, the South was Republican, except in 1976, and until the last couple of elections. Both parties, Democratic and Republican, are far different than they were in 1968.

Trump's policy pronouncements are so out of the current Democratic mainstream you cannot even see the mainstream from where Trump is.

No, fivethirtyeight, the Wallace comparison is bogus. No, Bernie Sanders you are wrong. And yes, Trump is contained within the GOP.