Friday, August 18, 2017

"The odds on Trump resigning just shifted, and not in his favor"

One word has been on everyone's lips this tumultuous week [Kyrie?] and for once it's not "impeachment" but rather "resignation" — and the possibility of Trump throwing in the towel is actually quite likely, if bookmakers' odds are to be believed.
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But how likely is a Trump resignation? Pretty likely, according to the bookies.
I am fucking astonished.


...Paddy Power’s Head of Trump Betting Joe Lee initially said...that [the odds were] cut to evens, which means it's a 50/50 chance [of Trump resigning.]
Ladbrokes is also setting the chances that Trump will leave office either through impeachment or resignation before the end of his first term at 50/50.

Gambling site Bovada, meanwhile, has wagers on Trump's likelihood of resigning before his first term, before the end of this year, 2018, 2019, or into a second term. The biggest payout [which means the LONGEST odds] is for a Trump resignation by the end of 2017.

Those odds are falling everyday, meaning he's favored to resign.

Paddy Power's spokesperson said the price of Trump's impeachment has been most interesting. It started out at 10/1 last November but is now "odds-on at 4/6 with odds of 2/1 that he's impeached this year."
To translate that from gamble-speak, "odds-on" means...[Stop. You're going to fuck this up. Any betting number where the "denominator" of the "fraction" is larger then the 'numerator," like in 4/6, is "odds on." You have to put $6 at risk for the chance to win $4.]