The post on this last night kept me up half the night reconsidering.
It was a pause, a blink. It was not the Soviet ships turning around and going home in October 1962. Kim did not abandon his plan to attack Guam. His generals stand ready to effectuate his order.
It was a pause that showed a blink of rationalism in Kim. Praise.
It showed that enormous, concerted pressure--and threats--can work...Didn't it? That is where I was wrong. It may have shown that. Or it may not have. There is not enough evidence. So un-Praise.
Kim paused...at the point of nuclear attack! That does show some rationality I guess but, deary me, so primitive and fundamental a rationality as to be the equivalent of the survival instinct. "Let's see...Attack the world's strongest military and get obliterated in retaliation...Hmm, what to do, what to do."
Would Kim have launched a nuclear attack on Guam if Trump had not gone full-Muhammad on him? My instantaneous answer early in the sleepless morning was "No." After that, I could sleep. I conclude that Trump's "fire and fury" did not prevent a nuclear attack on Guam but the temporal proximity of UN sanctions, China help, and "fire and fury" to the un-Pause...gives me pause. So, semi-un-Praise
Kim did not pause the refinement of his nuclear program which even now, in the opinion of most of the better minds, gives him the capability to attack part of or most of or all of (depending on which better mind) the continental United States oblast. Remember that was the first of Trump's "red lines" that he crossed? Remember? One of Trump's first post-selection (pre-installation, I believe) tweets on the DPRK was "WON'T HAPPEN!" Kim will not acquire the capability to strike the U.S. with nukes. Well, it did happen.
It was a pause, a blink. It was not the Soviet ships turning around and going home in October 1962. Kim did not abandon his plan to attack Guam. His generals stand ready to effectuate his order.
It was a pause that showed a blink of rationalism in Kim. Praise.
It showed that enormous, concerted pressure--and threats--can work...Didn't it? That is where I was wrong. It may have shown that. Or it may not have. There is not enough evidence. So un-Praise.
Kim paused...at the point of nuclear attack! That does show some rationality I guess but, deary me, so primitive and fundamental a rationality as to be the equivalent of the survival instinct. "Let's see...Attack the world's strongest military and get obliterated in retaliation...Hmm, what to do, what to do."
Would Kim have launched a nuclear attack on Guam if Trump had not gone full-Muhammad on him? My instantaneous answer early in the sleepless morning was "No." After that, I could sleep. I conclude that Trump's "fire and fury" did not prevent a nuclear attack on Guam but the temporal proximity of UN sanctions, China help, and "fire and fury" to the un-Pause...gives me pause. So, semi-un-Praise
Kim did not pause the refinement of his nuclear program which even now, in the opinion of most of the better minds, gives him the capability to attack part of or most of or all of (depending on which better mind) the continental United States oblast. Remember that was the first of Trump's "red lines" that he crossed? Remember? One of Trump's first post-selection (pre-installation, I believe) tweets on the DPRK was "WON'T HAPPEN!" Kim will not acquire the capability to strike the U.S. with nukes. Well, it did happen.
