It's late at night. My crazy time. So hear the crazy bell ring tonight. I have thought about this classic Louis CK skit several times in the last two weeks.
I thought about it again just tonight. I read this article on Japan's "puzzling" success with Covid-19:
Japan has puzzled epidemiologists as it has avoided the grim situations in places like Italy and New York without draconian restrictions on movement, economically devastating lockdowns or even widespread testing. [Note that last one.]
...
Although schools have been closed for a month...the rest of life has returned to normal. People have been riding crowded subways, congregating in parks to view the cherry blossoms, shopping, drinking and dining, comforted by Japan’s relatively low number of confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths.
...
Japan, a country of almost 127 million people, has reported only 1,300 cases and 45 deaths, with one of the slowest-progressing death rates in the world despite its aging population.
“It’s either they did something right,” said Dr. Peter Rabinowitz, co-director of the University of Washington MetaCenter for Pandemic Preparedness and Global Health Security, “or they didn’t, and we just don’t know about it yet.”
[Thank you for your expertise, Dr. Rabinowitz.]
As Japan has seemed to pull off a feat of infection containment...Nor did it adopt the kind of wholesale testing that helped South Korea isolate and treat people before they could spread the disease.
[Did you note that?]
...Japan has tested only about 25,000. Japan now has the capacity to conduct about 7,500 tests a day, but its daily average is closer to 1,200 or 1,300.
Dr. Tomoya Saito, director of the department of health crisis management at the National Institute of Public Health, said the limited testing was intentional. Those who are tested are referred by doctors, usually after patients have had fevers and other symptoms for two to four days. Japan’s current policy is to admit anyone who tests positive to a hospital, so officials want to avoid draining health care resources with less severe cases.
Dr. Saito said that part of Japan’s seeming resistance to infection may result from measures common in the culture, including frequent hand-washing and bowing instead of shaking hands. People are also much more likely to wear masks on trains and in public spaces. “It’s a kind of social distancing,” Dr. Saito said.
[I don't buy that explanation, not in one of the most densely populated countries in the world. See below for Japan's "social distancing."]
...
Dr. Masaya Yamato, chief of infectious diseases at Rinku General Medical Center in Osaka, said the region was moving toward a model where coronavirus patients with mild symptoms could stay at home in order to save hospital beds for the seriously ill.
In Tokyo, there are only 100 beds designated to handle those with serious infectious diseases. On Wednesday, the city government pledged to secure 600 more.
...
Near Shinbashi Station in central Tokyo, men in black suits sat elbow to elbow at a counter in a restaurant offering a fried noodle lunch special for 500 yen, about $4.50. A long line formed outside a McDonald’s, and smokers crowded a small pen near the station entrance.
...
At a store not far from the park, Kazuhisa Haraguchi, 36, stood in a long line for a chance to buy a limited-edition pair of Nike Air Max sneakers.
Mr. Haraguchi said that he was worried about how the virus was spreading in the United States and Europe, but that he wasn’t too concerned about the situation in Japan.
“It’s scary, but it doesn’t seem like there’s much of it here right now,” he said. “If I die, at least I’ll die with my sneakers.”
What if we didn't test? (We really aren't.) Good point. What if we deliberately did not test, like Japan?
What if we didn't know that there were precisely 85,840 cases of Covid-19 in the U.S? What if we didn't know why 1,296 people out of 372,000,000 died recently of something that started with a fever and a dry cough and then in that tiny, tiny fraction of the population got worse, something that looked very much like the seasonal flu which began in September and got 36,000,000 sick and killed 22,000, would anyone notice if instead of 22,000, 23,296 people died of the seasonal flu this year? If 1,296 trees fall in a forest and there is no one around to hear, did they make a noise? “Maybe if we just went like this (hands over eyes) for a year we’d be done with nut allergies forever.”
What if we had just gone on with the business of living* with the attitude of Kazuhisa Haraguchi. Of course, Covid-19 is scary! Of course, it is. "But maybe, since I’m going to die of something anyway and if it’s going to be as stupid a thing as the flu or touching a nut maybe I was supposed to die anyway. “And at least I’ll die with my sneakers.”
Of course not. Of course not. That’s crazy.
*Updated: The undersigned will not be able to go on about his law bidness. Thursday, the court closure was extended through April 20.
I thought about it again just tonight. I read this article on Japan's "puzzling" success with Covid-19:
Japan has puzzled epidemiologists as it has avoided the grim situations in places like Italy and New York without draconian restrictions on movement, economically devastating lockdowns or even widespread testing. [Note that last one.]
...
Although schools have been closed for a month...the rest of life has returned to normal. People have been riding crowded subways, congregating in parks to view the cherry blossoms, shopping, drinking and dining, comforted by Japan’s relatively low number of confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths.
...
Japan, a country of almost 127 million people, has reported only 1,300 cases and 45 deaths, with one of the slowest-progressing death rates in the world despite its aging population.
“It’s either they did something right,” said Dr. Peter Rabinowitz, co-director of the University of Washington MetaCenter for Pandemic Preparedness and Global Health Security, “or they didn’t, and we just don’t know about it yet.”
[Thank you for your expertise, Dr. Rabinowitz.]
As Japan has seemed to pull off a feat of infection containment...Nor did it adopt the kind of wholesale testing that helped South Korea isolate and treat people before they could spread the disease.
[Did you note that?]
...Japan has tested only about 25,000. Japan now has the capacity to conduct about 7,500 tests a day, but its daily average is closer to 1,200 or 1,300.
Dr. Tomoya Saito, director of the department of health crisis management at the National Institute of Public Health, said the limited testing was intentional. Those who are tested are referred by doctors, usually after patients have had fevers and other symptoms for two to four days. Japan’s current policy is to admit anyone who tests positive to a hospital, so officials want to avoid draining health care resources with less severe cases.
Dr. Saito said that part of Japan’s seeming resistance to infection may result from measures common in the culture, including frequent hand-washing and bowing instead of shaking hands. People are also much more likely to wear masks on trains and in public spaces. “It’s a kind of social distancing,” Dr. Saito said.
[I don't buy that explanation, not in one of the most densely populated countries in the world. See below for Japan's "social distancing."]
...
Dr. Masaya Yamato, chief of infectious diseases at Rinku General Medical Center in Osaka, said the region was moving toward a model where coronavirus patients with mild symptoms could stay at home in order to save hospital beds for the seriously ill.
In Tokyo, there are only 100 beds designated to handle those with serious infectious diseases. On Wednesday, the city government pledged to secure 600 more.
...
Near Shinbashi Station in central Tokyo, men in black suits sat elbow to elbow at a counter in a restaurant offering a fried noodle lunch special for 500 yen, about $4.50. A long line formed outside a McDonald’s, and smokers crowded a small pen near the station entrance.
...
At a store not far from the park, Kazuhisa Haraguchi, 36, stood in a long line for a chance to buy a limited-edition pair of Nike Air Max sneakers.
Mr. Haraguchi said that he was worried about how the virus was spreading in the United States and Europe, but that he wasn’t too concerned about the situation in Japan.
“It’s scary, but it doesn’t seem like there’s much of it here right now,” he said. “If I die, at least I’ll die with my sneakers.”
What if we didn't test? (We really aren't.) Good point. What if we deliberately did not test, like Japan?
What if we didn't know that there were precisely 85,840 cases of Covid-19 in the U.S? What if we didn't know why 1,296 people out of 372,000,000 died recently of something that started with a fever and a dry cough and then in that tiny, tiny fraction of the population got worse, something that looked very much like the seasonal flu which began in September and got 36,000,000 sick and killed 22,000, would anyone notice if instead of 22,000, 23,296 people died of the seasonal flu this year? If 1,296 trees fall in a forest and there is no one around to hear, did they make a noise? “Maybe if we just went like this (hands over eyes) for a year we’d be done with nut allergies forever.”
What if we had just gone on with the business of living* with the attitude of Kazuhisa Haraguchi. Of course, Covid-19 is scary! Of course, it is. "But maybe, since I’m going to die of something anyway and if it’s going to be as stupid a thing as the flu or touching a nut maybe I was supposed to die anyway. “And at least I’ll die with my sneakers.”
Of course not. Of course not. That’s crazy.
*Updated: The undersigned will not be able to go on about his law bidness. Thursday, the court closure was extended through April 20.
