The night gets colder and darker by the hour. Total deaths right now are at 1,041. More ominous, the mortality rate in the U.S. is now up to 1.5%. It has gone from 1.2% a few days ago to 1.3% yesterday to 1.4% earlier today and now to 1.5%. The world rate is 4.5%. Dr. Fauci said on March 11 that Trump Virus is "ten times" more lethal than seasonal flu, which is 0.1%. Taking him absolutely literally that would be a 1% mortality rate for Trump Virus. We're already 50% higher than that.
Previously I had pointed out as notable the U.S. low death rate compared to other countries and worldwide. Tonight I figured it out, finally understood what you probably understood before I did.
The U.S. first started getting cases in numbers that moved the graph on March 6. They increased arithmetically until March 16 and then took off exponentially with no end so far in sight. So the first people who in measurable numbers got sick from March 6-16 are the ones who were dying when the death rate was 1.2%, 1.3%. But now, the exponentially greater numbers from March 16, 17, and 18 have had 7 to 9 days with the virus and now they are dropping. The biggest jump in raw numbers on the graph is March 20 to 21. Some of them are probably dying also but it stands to reason that that large cohort will grow larger, meaning also that the death rate for them will increase in coming days as they have only had the virus for four or five days.
You can see what the jump in the mortality rate from 1.2% to 1.5% is going to do to the total number of deaths. If we take a round number, 100,000 infections, the total number of deaths at 1.2% is 1,200, at 1.5% 1,500. And if our mortality rate, contrary to the clear spirit of Dr. Fauci's estimate, got to the world rate, then 4,500 deaths per 100,000 would occur in the U.S. To state the obvious there is a clear, meaningful difference between 1,200 deaths and 4.500 per 100,000 that should, must, but if Trump has his way, won't, dictate general public policy.
Easter, Trump's target date to release the hounds is 18 days away. There were 18 days from March 6 to yesterday, the 24th, in which the total number of cases increased first arithmetically and then exponentially and the mortality rate climbed from 1.2% to 1.4%. But now, on the 25th, we have 18 days at the exponentially higher numbers until April 12 and the death rate has climbed to 1.5% since yesterday with no end in sight of the growth of the raw numbers and, off recent history, no reason to think that the mortality rate will not increase to 1.6%, 1.7%, and beyond. I would think.
With these trends, and now I am repeating myself, with the increase in the mortality rate so dramatically just in the last few days, no president concerned about national health would dare think to set April 12 as release the hounds day. Even if the number of infections "flattens" between now and April 12, the U.S. health care system is going to be inundated with these exponential cases and it would be madness to risk additional infections and subsequent deaths as added burden to an already overwhelmed system.
All this to repeat what I said too, too recently: TIGHTEN THE DAMN RESTRICTIONS! DON'T EASE THEM! KEEP THE HOUNDS PENNED! In short, you were right, I was wrong (again).
Good night, and may God keep the United States of America.
Previously I had pointed out as notable the U.S. low death rate compared to other countries and worldwide. Tonight I figured it out, finally understood what you probably understood before I did.
The U.S. first started getting cases in numbers that moved the graph on March 6. They increased arithmetically until March 16 and then took off exponentially with no end so far in sight. So the first people who in measurable numbers got sick from March 6-16 are the ones who were dying when the death rate was 1.2%, 1.3%. But now, the exponentially greater numbers from March 16, 17, and 18 have had 7 to 9 days with the virus and now they are dropping. The biggest jump in raw numbers on the graph is March 20 to 21. Some of them are probably dying also but it stands to reason that that large cohort will grow larger, meaning also that the death rate for them will increase in coming days as they have only had the virus for four or five days.
You can see what the jump in the mortality rate from 1.2% to 1.5% is going to do to the total number of deaths. If we take a round number, 100,000 infections, the total number of deaths at 1.2% is 1,200, at 1.5% 1,500. And if our mortality rate, contrary to the clear spirit of Dr. Fauci's estimate, got to the world rate, then 4,500 deaths per 100,000 would occur in the U.S. To state the obvious there is a clear, meaningful difference between 1,200 deaths and 4.500 per 100,000 that should, must, but if Trump has his way, won't, dictate general public policy.
Easter, Trump's target date to release the hounds is 18 days away. There were 18 days from March 6 to yesterday, the 24th, in which the total number of cases increased first arithmetically and then exponentially and the mortality rate climbed from 1.2% to 1.4%. But now, on the 25th, we have 18 days at the exponentially higher numbers until April 12 and the death rate has climbed to 1.5% since yesterday with no end in sight of the growth of the raw numbers and, off recent history, no reason to think that the mortality rate will not increase to 1.6%, 1.7%, and beyond. I would think.
With these trends, and now I am repeating myself, with the increase in the mortality rate so dramatically just in the last few days, no president concerned about national health would dare think to set April 12 as release the hounds day. Even if the number of infections "flattens" between now and April 12, the U.S. health care system is going to be inundated with these exponential cases and it would be madness to risk additional infections and subsequent deaths as added burden to an already overwhelmed system.
All this to repeat what I said too, too recently: TIGHTEN THE DAMN RESTRICTIONS! DON'T EASE THEM! KEEP THE HOUNDS PENNED! In short, you were right, I was wrong (again).
Good night, and may God keep the United States of America.
