No recent fight in the halls of Congress has quite carried the same stakes as this one...

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...The stalemate threatens to leave Congress with little time to resolve a set of disputes that could destabilize global markets.

The first deadline arrives Sept. 30, at which point Congress must strike a deal to fund the government or critical federal services could cease Oct. 1. Millions of federal employees could see interruptions to their pay. Federal agencies that perform critical tasks in homeland security, law enforcement and housing could stop paying workers indefinitely. National parks and monuments also may close.

...there is little precedent for a sudden halt in government functions during a public health crisis. The U.S. government plays a leading role in monitoring the virus’s spread and coordinating vaccines and testing, all the while distributing billions of dollars in housing relief and other aid programs — working through agencies that are traditionally severely affected during a shutdown.

Three years ago [Dec. 22 2018-Jan. 25, 2019], a shutdown under President Donald Trump’s watch also cleaved a hole in the U.S. economy: JPMorgan Chase estimated then that the country lost $1.5 billion each week that Washington remained at a standstill.

A shutdown in 2021, however, could have even greater economic effects at a time when the Biden administration is still grappling with a pandemic that at one point caused widespread, Depression-era unemployment. Adding to the burden, lawmakers had hoped in the latest funding measure to authorize billions of dollars to respond to two recent, deadly hurricanes that battered the Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard. Those dollars now remain in jeopardy, along with a third priority to help resettle Afghan refugees who left their home country as the Taliban seized on a messy U.S. withdrawal.

Only one Senate Republican, Sen. John Neely Kennedy (La.), has signaled an interest in breaking ranks and casting a vote in favor of the spending — citing the impact of Hurricane Ida on his home state.
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The next blow could come days later, in mid-October, when the U.S. government stands to breach the debt ceiling absent action from Congress. Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen and other top Biden administration officials have urgently referred to the prospect as a financial doomsday, saying it puts U.S. credit at risk and could plunge the economy back into the recession from which it only recently re-emerged.

The last prolonged standoff over government funding [Dec. 22, 2018-Jan. 25, 2019] prompted Fitch Ratings, a credit agency, to warn at the time that it threatened the U.S. government’s rating, making its debts more expensive...

Congress appeared at a complete standstill, with no serious negotiations underway and no effort on the part of the White House to break the logjam with the GOP. Instead, both sides have continued to trade rhetorical barbs, raising the prospects of financial calamity.
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...Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has ignored the attacks, as his party hopes to use the fight over the debt ceiling as a way to delay Democrats from securing as much as $3.5 trillion in new spending that Biden seeks. He said GOP lawmakers would have supported an extension of government funding along with new disaster relief if only Democrats had not coupled it with an increase in the federal borrowing limit.
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In recent days, Democratic lawmakers have reassured they will not allow the country to default. Some have said they could ultimately take special legislative maneuvers to bypass the Republican blockade and adopt the debt ceiling increase on their own.

But the process could take days that Democrats simply do not have, meaning at least a partial or short-term government shutdown is possible even if Congress staves off a more apocalyptic financial meltdown.