Thursday, September 02, 2021

Trump had this thing where a gesture, a meeting--where nothing is agreed or signed--can be as effective in deesculating tensions as the most laboriously negotiated, detailed treaty. It worked with North Korea. All we put in writing was "it's both our intents that we not go to war against one another" or some such nonsense. We met with the Taliban. We did negotiate an "agreement" or "commitment" with them. Trump said he would be willing to have the Taliban come to Camp David for a meeting! He had to back off that for the flak he was taking but I wouldn't be surprised if that Camp David gesture didn't really make an impression on the Taliban. According to the reports the Taliban really did help us get out, escorting American citizens to the airport. I was disappointed, therefore, to read that Secretary Blinken said that future relations between the U.S. and Afghanistan would be determined by Taliban "behavior." Obviously. Too obviously to say. Blinken is a by the book diplomat. It can't be good unless you spend weeks negotiating about the shape of the conference table first. In my view Blinken's was the wrong kind of gesture to make. The Taliban are going to feel betrayed. "After all we did for you..." 

When Nixon went to China--talk about gestures! hooooo doggie--...that's all he had to do. He didn't have to negotiate shit. At one point Mao demonstrated that he understood the power of the gesture better than Nixon had. Nixon wanted Sino-American relations worked out for the next hundred years, like "Before the Peoples Republic will be admitted as the fifty-first state..."you don't have to do that. Mao thought the visit was enough. "We don't have to agree on everything!" he said to Nixon, refusing to get drawn in to disagreements during a love-fest. The trip, the invited invitation and the acceptance, had accomplished rapprochement.

In my view the Foggy Bottom manual misses the point. There is no substitute for will. Will. If there is the will quit with the threats that can be put in the undiplomatic language of "We fell in love." The most drawn out treaty in the world isn't worth the paper it's printed on (as we have found out again and again and again) unless both sides have the will to agree. Gestures are important demonstrations of will. We ought not dismiss gestures as empty of substance.