Tuesday, December 28, 2021



Last week, the C.D.C. said that Omicron accounted for approximately 73 percent of variants circulating in the United States in the week ending Dec. 18. But in its revision, the agency said the variant accounted for about 23 percent of cases that week.

In other words, Delta, which has dominated U.S. infections since summer, still reigned in the United States that week. 

Oh. That's not good.

That could mean that a significant number of current Covid hospitalizations were driven by infections from Delta, Dr. Scott Gottlieb, a former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, suggested on Twitter. Hospitalizations typically lag several weeks behind initial infections.

Experts said they were not surprised by the revisions...they said the C.D.C. did a poor job communicating the uncertainty of its estimates.

Oh, so we still suck.

“The 73 percent got a lot more attention than the confidence intervals, and I think this is one example among many where scientists are trying to project an air of confidence about what’s going to happen,” said David O’Connor, a virologist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

...

More precise numbers will be needed to smartly distribute Covid treatments. 

lol