Excellent article. Makes all the points on O: speed; less serious--"incidental COVID"; the downside of restrictions--on the economy--in extending the wave, disruptions--for what?--of travel, sports, etc. The consequences of O are going to be more severe in the U.S. than in Israel and the British Isles--but because their people are more "responsible" in getting vaxed. Excellent article.
That daunting notion — backed by data from nations where Omicron is spreading rapidly only a month after it was first detected — is tempered by early evidence that the variant causes milder symptoms, with vaccinations and boosters helping prevent serious illness and death.
Experts worldwide have expressed concern that the sheer number of people likely infected could create a flood of patients, overwhelming already stressed health care systems. But that concern is running up against those who argue that it is time to accept that the virus is endemic, and that countries should move away from lockdowns and toward more relaxed rules, including shorter quarantines.
John Bell, a professor of medicine at Oxford University and an adviser to the British government, said that Omicron was “not the same disease we were seeing a year ago.”
“The horrific scenes that we saw a year ago of intensive care units being full, lots of people dying prematurely, that is now history, in my view, and I think we should be reassured that that’s likely to continue,” he told the BBC on Tuesday.
Britain appears to be a few weeks ahead of most other nations in confronting the first wave of Omicron infection and, for the moment, has decided that the evidence does not warrant new restrictions.
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Chris Hopson, the head of N.H.S. Providers, the membership organization for England’s health staff, said that while hospitalizations across Britain had risen, it was not a precipitous jump....“Some are describing this as ‘incidental Covid.’”
Professor Paul Hunter, an infectious disease expert at the University of East Anglia, said the approach to the current rise is a complicated one.
“If health services are likely to come under such pressure that they could collapse then implementing control measures now would be the right thing to do,” he wrote in a post on Twitter. “But tighter control measures carry a real risk, and not just to mental health, the economy, etc.” Forcing a change in behavior would not prevent infections, just delay them, he said. So further restrictions now would reduce the peak of a surge in cases and could ease short-term pressure on health services, but also extend the wave, he added.
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With or without regulations to curb the spread of the virus, positive test results are disrupting businesses around the world. Over the Christmas holidays, Omicron wreaked havoc on global travel, entertainment and sporting events.
