I have always understood that the death interval, that between hospitalization and death, is, as a general guide, two weeks. I have read that to know where we're going it's best to look at hospitalizations somewhere within a standard deviation of that general guide. I chose two weeks on the nose from Feb. 4, January 22. As you can sort of see even on a graphic display, Jan. 22 was just off the peak of O-hospitalizations. In fact, it was just the second day on the downturn from the peak on Jan. 20. There is much elasticity in the general rule of the H-D interval, and if it is off by a standard deviation of, say, one week, then our outlook is drastically changed. If the H-D interval is three weeks then our key date is Jan. 15, 154,698, and Deaths are heading up, to a proportion of H's Jan. 20 peak of 159,544. If one week, then the key date is Jan. 29, 146,013 and Deaths should have been trending down since Jan. 21. They have not been and I am reasonably certain that the H-D interval is closer to three weeks. If it's four weeks then we are hurtin' for certain. The Deaths graph however is not smooth as C's and H's are; it's ragged, and a little wobbly and even wobbled down the last two its. of the 7-day. Reading too close but that suggests to me the H-D interval is closer to three than four weeks. Saturday is the last day of the full reporting week. Sunday and Monday are lag days. I would expect...I don't know what to expect. The rule suggests we have not reached peak Death yet and will not for five more days, but the last two its. of the 7-day have been down on full reporting days. I expect Deaths will be higher in 4-5 days than they are now and then will start a wobbly decline.
Saturday, February 05, 2022
Friday, February 04, 2022
COVID-19 BIDEN +380 (Feb. 4)
That lede and article are date-lined today, Feb. 4, at 7:07 pm.
You can't say that Quasis, not if your article is based on your Deaths graph:
14-day changes
-56% Cases
-19% Hospitalizations
+21% Deaths
317,764 Cases. Down.
You know why gas became the Nazi's favorite thing? Because Himmler, wanting to see an execution in person, ordered an old-style firing squad of 100 in Minsk in August, 1942, and almost fainted. When two Jewish women weren't killed immediately by the bullets Himmler "became hysterical." It was hard on him. (Shirer The Rise and Fall 962-3)
Never been anything like the Nazis, guys, never.
WojBomb: Justise on the move again
How Hitler?
How did Adolph Hitler come to be? Was he the Antichrist?
The history of Germany and Prussia provided the conditions for a brutal dictator to sprout but fertile fields are not the same as causation. World War I caused World War II. It did not cause Hitler. Throughout human history barbaric dictatorship is the rule, not the exception. Mass murder, genocide, cannibalism, slavery--those too are "family values" when the family is humanity. Hitler was "extreme" as Genghis Khan, Caligula and the other "greats" of human barbarity of antiquity were and Hitler had the "skill set" that they did not have: foremost, German efficiency and modern technology. Was Hitler "merely" extreme but with better tools? I don't think so. Warsaw and Leningrad were to be razed to the ground and their populaces left without food. Murder by starvation was a deliberate tactic of the New Order, the plan partially implemented to systematically exterminate the peoples of Europe and to make those not exterminated outright slave laborers of the Reich. This was the plan of the New Order for the entire world. It knows no equal in human history. It was not "merely" inhuman, it was anti-human.
Antichrist: i believe that Jesus of Nazareth was the finest human being to ever walk the face of the earth. I do not believe that he was a demigod. I believe that Adolph Hitler was the opposite of Jesus, the Antichrist. Human beings have discarded their moral core whenever it has been convenient. Hitler though was anti-morality. The antecedents were there, in Nietzsche. They are just additional fertilizer for the fields, however, they do not provide causation. Nietzsche has been read by millions of people, none but one became a Hitler.
And why did so many barbarians come to power in the 20th century after the birth of Christ? Stalin, Hitler, Mao Zedong, Tojo, Pol Pot, Idi Amin, I am surely forgetting some, why were the fields of the 20th century so fertile as to germinate such? When an essayist asks these many questions it means he does not have answers to any of them, and indeed this humble essayist does not. Unquestionably, even with so many competitors in the 20th century, indeed in all of human history, Adolph Hitler was, superlatives fail here, the best I can do is "most evil" human being. He seems more a visitation on humanity of an evil Antichrist from the Apocalypse than merely "human, all too human."
Thursday, February 03, 2022
FT-OT "Jurassic Park Birds" 127 "Male Cows" 120
With the loss coupled with the MIA win (112-95) Chi and MIA are tied for 1st place again, Chi having a 4-thousandth point advantage.Tonto is hot! Still in 7th place though.
Miami plays at CHAZZ (28-24, 5th place, 4.5 games behind Chi and MIA Saturday night. The distance from an East Side Penthouse to a suburban duplex on Staten Island is mighty short.
End 3Q 66-88
End 1Q 19-21
Wheels On :o 17-19, 2:01 1Q, "Heat" Full T.O.
Wheels Off 15-9, 4:04 1Q
So far Kyle has gotten a T, Jimmy just got called for a foul and then got a T and Donut has played 6' and is 1/4 (1/3).
COVID-19 BIDEN+378 (Feb. 2)
Looking at the three graphs side-by-side it appears that the Hospitalizations relative decline is less than half the decline in Cases. 7-day average daily Cases peaked on Jan. 15. H's peaked on Jan. 20. Hmm, I don't really understand that. Let's try a different way of understanding: H's on Feb. 2 were 83.8% of their peak. Let's first determine when Cases were 83.8% of their peak. The closest we can get is Jan. 24, 82.7% of peak O.
Cases Hospitalizations Deaths
U.S. Exposes What It Says Is Russian Effort to Fabricate Pretext for Invasion
Officials said Russia was planning a fake video showing an attack by Ukrainians on Russian territory or Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine.
The Bidens are just all OVER this. Clap out to them. This is exactly what Putin did in 2014 in Ukraine--and what Adolph Hitler did in Czechoslovakia and Poland in 1939."Raptors" 110 "Heat" 106 (2/1) Devilish Details
Bam had a monster game Tuesday night: 32 points on a team-high 17 shots (do not ever remember Bam Bam leading the team in shots), 13 of those makes, 11 rebounds in 35'.
Jimmy played a team-high 40' but couldn't shoot, 3/10 (0/3) 10/10 free throws, 8 rebbes, 12 asts to 3 t.o.'s, a sparkling 4-1 ratio. Gabe, the nominal PG, had only 2 asts and 1 t.o. in only 25'. He couldn't shoot either, nor could Duncan who has reverted from Swish Robinson to Donut. Both were 1/6 from the floor, Gabe 1/4 from range, Donut 1/5. Donut played 15' before being yanked by Spo. Expect Donut to be traded by the deadline a week from now. The Composer (33') and the Hero (29') saw more p.t. than two of the starters. The former had 9 pnts on 3/7 (3/7), the latter, also playing the point, had 18 on 7/12 (2/5), 5 asts but 3 t.o.'s. As a team we shot well (48.7%), just not from range (26.7%) and that's where the game was lost. Toronto shot 46.2% behind the arc. It's obvious that Spoelstra went to his only consistent scoring option, and when that is your workhorse center on a team of shooters, that is opportunistic but with some desperation admixed.Take away Bam's shots and makes and we converted .410, which isn't shooting well. We couldn't stop Gary Trent Jr. Tuesday. A shooting guard he went off for 33 on 11/20 (6/10). It looks like Spo had no one to turn to to defend Trent. Probably just about everybody was tried, including Jimmy and Caleb, our second-best open-court defender, but Caleb played only 14' and was a -14 for the game. Our SG counterparts, Donut, played only 15' and was a +/-0 and the Composer did play enough to be plausible defender and was only -2 for the game. Whoever tried, nothing worked on Gary Trent.
I'm not surprised Jimmy is questionable tonight, not only because he's Jimmy but because he played 40' and in the 3OT loss to this same team last Friday night he played 52' and missed the next game. If we lose tonight we have our new season losing streak. We don't have enough folks, not to contend for a championship, not even to beat these four ~.500 teams. One other ominous note. We have gotten blown out in each game we have played against two of the teams on our tails. Ninth-place Beans beat us by 17 at home on Nov. 4 and then by 30 in the Massacre up there Monday night. Fifth-place Cleve beat us by 26 at Bang Bus on Dec. 1 and by 11 (actually not a blow out but a double-digit loss) on Lake Mistake on Dec. 13.
Wednesday, February 02, 2022
BillyNaps Army Reinforcements?
Oh
Texas A&M put together the best recruiting class in college tackle football today, people are calling it historic, and maybe the most decorated class ever. It never occurred to me that there was anything more than Dumbo Fisher's recruiting nous and the lure of A&M going on.
I forgot NIL: name, image, likeness. Kids can now be paid for use of those of themselves. Nick Saban said to a group of prospective recruits (in Texas too) last year that Bryce Young had been paid $80,000 in NIL fees before ever playing a down for the "Crimson Tide."
Tellingly, Fisher has not denied using NIL deals to get recruits, he has questioned the amount, and has argued that kids were always paid, just not legally. Texas A&M generates more revenue than any other college football program in the nation, but the schools don't pay, businessmen and the schools' boosters pay.
This is a problem that the big-time football colleges and universities are going to have deal with the best they can. NIL payments are legal, the kids are entitled to them and the schools are not. But man do they tilt the competitive balance. The rich are going to get richer and the gap between them and the others is going to yawn. Just the way that it does in a market economy.
What Putin Can Do
In a recent Associated Press survey, 44 percent of Republicans said they did not want Mr. Trump to run for president again
Tuesday, February 01, 2022
COVID-19 BIDEN+377 (Feb. 1)
14-day changes
-44% Cases-13% Hospitalizations
+39% Deaths. Over two weeks Deaths have increased from 30% in the Jan. 25 through Jan. 31 to 39% in the Jan. 26 through Feb. 1 iteration. Deaths are continuing to rise faster than previously, which is nauseating to record. Feb. 1 is the first full reporting day of the new week which lasts through Feb. 5 before the lag sets in again. I don't expect Deaths over the next four days to decrease.
Putin Signals Openness to Diplomacy While Blaming U.S. for Crisis
COVID-19 BIDEN+376 (Jan. 31)
Cases are down over 42% over two weeks; Hospitalizations down 11%; Deaths up an enormous—but expected—30%. With H’s falling by double digits it’s only a matter of two-three weeks, if that, before Deaths fall.
7-day daily averages:
456,831 Cases. Down.140,440 Hospitalizations. Down.
2,558 Deaths. Up.
American Exceptionalism
...the number of dead has clouded a sense of optimism, even as Omicron cases recede. And it has laid bare weaknesses in the country’s response, scientists said.
“Death rates are so high in the States — eye-wateringly high,” said Devi Sridhar, head of the global public health program at the University of Edinburgh in Scotland, who has supported loosening coronavirus rules in parts of Britain. “The United States is lagging.”Since this article isn't making excuses I assume (I have not checked) that it is not written by the woman whose reporting on the virus I do not trust...No, it is not: By Benjamin Mueller and Eleanor Lutz
...Since Dec. 1, when health officials announced the first Omicron case in the United States, the share of Americans who have been killed by the coronavirus is at least 63 percent higher than in any of these other large, wealthy nations, according to a New York Times analysis of mortality figures.
In recent months, the United States passed Britain and Belgium to have, among rich nations, the largest share of its population to have died from Covid over the entire pandemic.
...
I don’t think Putin can resist. I am confident he will rise to the bait. He'll just walk his country into economic and financial ruin. He is on the horns of a real lose-lose dilemma though. What IS he going to do with all of those troops? lol WHAT is his guy going to say at the U.N. after he invades? Nothing credible, only laughable. Hauling them before the U.N. Security Council and "goading" them into saying BEFORE they invade that they're not going to invade--that was the master chess move! What was the Security Council going to do after an attack? Nothing, not with the Russians and Chinese holding vetoes. So the brilliance of this move was recognizing that Russia and China can't veto a Security Council meeting and that even a Security Council meeting gives you a golden opportunity on the world stage to make your case. That the Americans did!

