I have always understood that the death interval, that between hospitalization and death, is, as a general guide, two weeks. I have read that to know where we're going it's best to look at hospitalizations somewhere within a standard deviation of that general guide. I chose two weeks on the nose from Feb. 4, January 22. As you can sort of see even on a graphic display, Jan. 22 was just off the peak of O-hospitalizations. In fact, it was just the second day on the downturn from the peak on Jan. 20. There is much elasticity in the general rule of the H-D interval, and if it is off by a standard deviation of, say, one week, then our outlook is drastically changed. If the H-D interval is three weeks then our key date is Jan. 15, 154,698, and Deaths are heading up, to a proportion of H's Jan. 20 peak of 159,544. If one week, then the key date is Jan. 29, 146,013 and Deaths should have been trending down since Jan. 21. They have not been and I am reasonably certain that the H-D interval is closer to three weeks. If it's four weeks then we are hurtin' for certain. The Deaths graph however is not smooth as C's and H's are; it's ragged, and a little wobbly and even wobbled down the last two its. of the 7-day. Reading too close but that suggests to me the H-D interval is closer to three than four weeks. Saturday is the last day of the full reporting week. Sunday and Monday are lag days. I would expect...I don't know what to expect. The rule suggests we have not reached peak Death yet and will not for five more days, but the last two its. of the 7-day have been down on full reporting days. I expect Deaths will be higher in 4-5 days than they are now and then will start a wobbly decline.
