Below are excerpts from an article on CNN online by Nic Robertson. The points Mr. Robertson makes are, in my view, valid and consistent in substance with what is written elsewhere, including here. However, the tone is different, it is too dire, in my view. The NATO alliance is not "shattered" by Turkey's rash shootdown of the Russian fighter jet. I do not believe that President Erdogan of Turkey is trying to reconstitute the Ottoman empire; I do not believe that Vladimir Putin is trying to reconstitute the Soviet empire, although there is more reason to think that. To call this a "gain" for Putin is to attribute a demoniacal far-sightedness to him that overstates his vision and demoniacal side. Putin seems to me a pragmatist who seizes opportunities, picks low-hanging fruit, as it were, not one whose every move is part of a grander scheme. He is not Hitler. He probes at NATO because he is surrounded by it to his West. He wishes its disappearance because it should have disappeared after the collapse of the Soviet Union, because the Soviets were told that NATO certainly would not expand; my God, the thought; would expand "not one inch" eastward, and now is confronted with a a hostile alliance that did expand and right to the Baltic Sea. He wishes its disappearance in other words because the Soviets were lied to. He is suspicious and paranoid of NATO because expansion was aimed at Russia and he and his predecessors were told it was not, in other words because they were lied to. He is suspicious and paranoid because the U.S. pulled out of the ABM treaty.
As for Erdogan. Remember him ripping Pope Francis over the Armenian genocide? The still unsolved bombing of the peace rally? Remember that he's an Islamist? Who won election that furthers Turkey toward one-party rule? Sounds like Putin! I was surprised to read that Turkey had been a NATO member since 1952! This is a such an awkward grouping, too little in common, and yet there is the reality that it is a military alliance, aimed at Russia:
"Article Five of the treaty states that if an armed attack occurs against one of the member states, it should be considered an attack against all members, and other members shall assist the attacked member, with armed forces if necessary.[1]"-Wikipedia
"The cool, calm, clear thinking that kept the NATO alliance intact as it weathered the Cold War with the Soviet Union has been shattered.
Decades of careful diplomacy and nail-biting inaction during the potentially world-annihilating nuclear arms race of the 1950s, 60s and 70s appears to have been sacrificed in a few brief seconds by Turkey.
That all changed when Turkish air force jets shot down a Russian bomber Tuesday -- the first time a NATO country has taken such action since 1952. And in those moments, Russian President Vladimir Putin was given a strategic goal: Destabilize and divide NATO.
But, already, German and Czech officials are expressing surprise at Turkey's action -- taken after the Russian plane was inside Turkish airspace for 30 seconds or less, according to U.S. calculations."
...
"[ISIL's attacks on KGL9268 and on Paris presented] a rare moment in international diplomacy and some diplomats were beginning to think Russia's policy on Syria and its support for Bashar al-Assad could be changed. Not quickly, or easily, but the chance was there.
And Erdogan has squandered it.
And that's why -- at first analysis -- this looks like a disaster, beyond the loss of life of one pilot and a would-be rescuer.
It may also be a gain for Putin.
For all those years he has was trying to undermine NATO unity, Erdogan's hasty move has handed it to him on a plate.
Erdogan's NATO partners can now only look at him as a loose cannon, an unstable element in a very combustible situation. Not a steady partner capable of calm nerve that saw the alliance last the Cold War. Erdogan has thrown the whole card table in the air."
As for Erdogan. Remember him ripping Pope Francis over the Armenian genocide? The still unsolved bombing of the peace rally? Remember that he's an Islamist? Who won election that furthers Turkey toward one-party rule? Sounds like Putin! I was surprised to read that Turkey had been a NATO member since 1952! This is a such an awkward grouping, too little in common, and yet there is the reality that it is a military alliance, aimed at Russia:
"Article Five of the treaty states that if an armed attack occurs against one of the member states, it should be considered an attack against all members, and other members shall assist the attacked member, with armed forces if necessary.[1]"-Wikipedia
"The cool, calm, clear thinking that kept the NATO alliance intact as it weathered the Cold War with the Soviet Union has been shattered.
Decades of careful diplomacy and nail-biting inaction during the potentially world-annihilating nuclear arms race of the 1950s, 60s and 70s appears to have been sacrificed in a few brief seconds by Turkey.
That all changed when Turkish air force jets shot down a Russian bomber Tuesday -- the first time a NATO country has taken such action since 1952. And in those moments, Russian President Vladimir Putin was given a strategic goal: Destabilize and divide NATO.
But, already, German and Czech officials are expressing surprise at Turkey's action -- taken after the Russian plane was inside Turkish airspace for 30 seconds or less, according to U.S. calculations."
...
"[ISIL's attacks on KGL9268 and on Paris presented] a rare moment in international diplomacy and some diplomats were beginning to think Russia's policy on Syria and its support for Bashar al-Assad could be changed. Not quickly, or easily, but the chance was there.
And Erdogan has squandered it.
And that's why -- at first analysis -- this looks like a disaster, beyond the loss of life of one pilot and a would-be rescuer.
It may also be a gain for Putin.
For all those years he has was trying to undermine NATO unity, Erdogan's hasty move has handed it to him on a plate.
Erdogan's NATO partners can now only look at him as a loose cannon, an unstable element in a very combustible situation. Not a steady partner capable of calm nerve that saw the alliance last the Cold War. Erdogan has thrown the whole card table in the air."
