Saturday, November 28, 2015

"Why did we give this information to the Americans if they did not pass it along to the rest of the coalition?"

This is an official statement by the government of Turkey through its embassy in Washington, D.C. on the downing of the Russian warplane. The bolded typeface is added by me for emphasis. Twice in a simple release Turkey waves the flag of NATO, also for emphasis.

NATO drags the U.S. into this and that is the problem with military alliances. Putin has said that Russia will not retaliate militarily. Today however a Russian official said that Putin was 'mobilized, fully mobilized" in response to the Turkish "threat." Another Russian official said to expect air engagements with Turkey and naval engagements. If any one of those materialize all Turkey need do is invoke Article Five of the NATO treaty and the U.S. and every other NATO member country is obligated to come to Turkey's military defense.

The problem with an all-for-one, one-for-all military treaty, therefore, is this automatic effect. The automatic effect means that you can't call a member country wrong. When the treaty is bilateral or trilateral there is enough commonality of interests-of identity-to prevent absurd conflicts triggered by a rogue member. But NATO is not bilateral, not trilateral, it is 28 laterals. The automatic effect means that NATO, as it has, must take Turkey's position, right or wrong. And that if shoot comes to down it must shoot with Turkey against Russia. The problem also manifests itself in reverse. That is, in all-for-one, one-for-all, the actions of one member are the actions of all. Knowledge by one is knowledge by all. The alliance as a whole, and individually, naturally are held responsible for the irresponsible actions of one. This is how Putin put it:

"The American side, which leads the coalition that Turkey belongs to, knew about the location and time of our planes' flights, and we were hit exactly there and at that time."

"Why did we give this information to the Americans if they did not pass it along to the rest of the coalition?"


Checkmate.

Since NATO was, and continues to be, aimed at Russia the NATO treaty means that no NATO country, such as the U.S., nor NATO as a whole, can say that Russia was right-on anything-if the party in the wrong is a member of NATO. You don't have to call Russia paranoid to feel the hostility that Russia feels from NATO and towards NATO.

The problem with multi-lateral treaties, what Woodrow Wilson warned against, is one of "entangling alliances." The European security arrangements prior to World War I were supposed to weave each of the major powers so closely to the others that conflict could not occur. But, if you pull on the right strand of the strongest, most intricate weave, the whole thing unravels quickly and once Germany attacked, then by automatic effect this country was entangled and since that one was entangled this one was obligated to get involved and since that one, this one and that one and the other. Voila! General war in Europe.

Related

Today, an Israeli official said that Russian aircraft have "at times" violated Israeli air space in bombing targets in Syria but that "excellent security coordination" between the two countries prevent the incursions from escalating.

Today a Turkish lawyer, an advocate for the Kurds, was murdered during a press conference.

On October 10, 102 people attending a peace rally in Ankara were killed.

On November 2, President Erdogan's political party won national elections giving Turkey one-party rule. Erdogan is Islamist.

Today Erdogan said he was "really saddened" by the shootdown, wished it had not happened.


Embassy Announcement


Press Release On Violation Of The Turkish Airspace , 25.11.2015

On 24 November, Turkish radars detected two SU-24 type aircraft of unidentified nationality flying very close to Turkish border near Yayladağı region of Hatay Province.

The two aircraft were warned 10 times by our radar over a period of 5 minutes, via emergency “Guard” channel to change their heading south immediately so as not to violate the Turkish national airspace.

Both aircraft, flying at an altitude of 19.000 feet and following each other with a distance of 5 miles, violated Turkish airspace from east to west by 1,15 miles depth and 1,36 miles length for 17 seconds starting from 09.24¢.05² (9 hours, 24 minutes, 5 seconds).

The radar track records indicating the flight pattern and violated air space have been shared with Allies at the North Atlantic Council meeting. 

Upon continued warnings, one of the aircraft left the Turkish airspace. However, the second aircraft continued to violate the Turkish airspace
and was shot down by the Turkish F-16’s conducting air patrolling in the area. The intruder was still in Turkish airspace when hit and then crashed into the adjacent territory in Syria.

We have repeatedly communicated and explained in very clear terms our rules of engagement for all unidentified aircraft approaching from Syria in violation of Turkish airspace to all concerned parties, including Russia.

Therefore, the incident is essentially an implementation of our existing rules of engagement towards an aircraft of unidentified nationality, which violated Turkish airspace in spite of repeated warnings.

We have informed the P-5 countries through their Embassies in Ankara. We have also circulated a letter at the UN and informed the UN Secretary General and the Security Council.

Upon our request, NATO Council met on 24 November. We have informed our Allies about the incident at that meeting. All Allies expressed their strong solidarity with Turkey.

The violated airspace is also NATO airspace. As Secretary General Stoltenberg underlined at the press conference he held following the Council meeting, we appreciate and value the solidarity our Allies have been displaying. 

We would like to stress that we have no intention whatsoever to escalate the situation. Our contacts with the Russian authorities are ongoing to this end.