Saturday, January 05, 2019

In the Hot House

From Ira Winderman.

...[L]ast April, in the wake of an uneven first-round playoff demise against the Philadelphia 76ers... [Pat] Riley famously said: "I'm going to tell you one thing about our team that we do have a problem with -- we have a logjam. We have too many good-to-great players. We have too many. We have like 11 or 12 guys."
...
...[H]ad Riley, General Manager Andy Elisburg and their front-office staff known [in the summer of 2017] about Justise Winslow, Josh Richardson, Bam Adebayo, Derrick Jones Jr. and even Rodney McGruder what they know now, would they still have signed [Dion] Waiters, James Johnson, Kelly Olynyk and Ellington in the 2017 offseason?
...
What was done during the 2017 offseason can't be undone.

Little "irrational exuberance" in Riles' statement but if you take out "to great" the statement is right on the money.

I would call what Ira Winderman has for those five guys irrational exuberance also, even in his lawyerly caveat that there's "not necessarily an all-star" there. Right, and I'm not necessarily a Supreme Court Justice in the making. Ira falls hard for that beguiling siren, Promise.

By contrast, Production walks by and Ira never turns his head. Hassan Whiteside does not make either of Ira's groups! Not the one of cheap, unrequited Promise, not the one of over-blinged Production. Hassan Whiteside, who led the NBA in blocked shots in 2015-16 and who led the league in rebounds the next year! Hassan Whiteside, 29 years old. Hassan Whiteside, $24.6 million a year! Seems to me Hassan would be poster boy in either of Ira's groups, depending on his view of him. Goodness gracious.

And by contrast Ira actually responded to a reader’s question about Dion Waiters that he thinks about Waiters’ contract every night when he goes to bed :o Which is funny if you think about and not funny if you think more about it. If Miami had not had Dion Waiters in 2017 30-11 would not have happened. Dion is 27 years old, smack in the middle of his prime balling years, makes $11.55 mil this year and just came back from a year off for ankle surgery and rehab. NOBODY on this roster of nobodies has more Promise than Dion Waiters and Dion's incentivized contract is not that bad! That's what keeps Ira up at night, regrets to Mrs. Winderman. JEEZUS.

James Johnson was the adult in the room on the 2016-17 “Heat.”

He was the glue that held them together,

the enforcer of the team’s younger players, their protector on the court.
You don't mess with James. That is the hand of like a 17th degree black belt.

Look at #13: "Oh my God man, you dead now."


The Miami "Heat" were Team Joy in 2017.
Honest to God, I never saw anything like that team for sheer joy in the second half of the 2016-'17 season in any professional sport and James Johnson and Hassan Whiteside were the reasons.


So, it pains me to acknowledge that Ira Winderman has a very strong case for contract regret with James who is going to be 32 in February, makes $15 mil, and who also was hurt last year and sat out all but the last several games this year.

Miami 2018-19 is in almost a half season identical to the entire 2016-17 season, 7-13 at first, 12-5 since that low point. 35% to 70%. Promise has just walked by Ira and he's turned around and is following her. Would it be prudent for Pat Riley to prune the tree by February 7, the trade deadline? Indeed, it would, Ira and the undersigned idiot agree. So, who? Not surprisingly Ira suggests Dion and James and Kelly Olynyk could now tempt a win-now team. Dion, a Production player with question marks due to injury, probably yes. James, a Character player making 15 mil, no. A win-now team has no need for another adult. And Kelly, little production, big salary, no. Ira again does not mention Hassan but here I think reasonably: That contract is a big turn-off and in a league gone perimeter where is the market for a Big who only led the entire league in blocked shots one year and in rebounds the next? This is NBA-think these days. Looks like the "Heat" are "stuck" with Hassan! Ira includes nobody from his Promise category which is funny when you think about it and absurd when you think about it. Didn't Ira learn anything from Minnesota's demands for Jimmy Butler?

It says here if Pat Riley wants to prune this roster he has to pick the budding fruit of Promise. Justise Winslow now is pretty tempting: his play at PG for the injured Dragon. Package Justise with Dion and you might be able to get somebody who is willing (if you want them to) to take Hassan. Winslow, Waiters and Whiteside could bring a star but there is one more factor at work: the "Miami Effect."

The Miami Effect, the term used by an NBA scout to a Miami Herald reporter, discounts "Heat" players, both Promise and Production players, as a product of the famed "Heat" "culture." So: Dion Waiters 18 ppg over 25 games in 2017? Too small a sample size for a guy with too large a gut. "Heat" "culture" puts players on steroids, figuratively speaking, the "Heat" get them in "world class shape" and coach them up. "We can't do that," is what other teams are saying when they use the term Miami Effect. We don't have Pat Riley, we don't have Erik Spoelstra, we don't have that "culture." With us we'll get Dion the moody, no-D, blimp; the 8 ppg JJ, not the 12.8 ppg JJ; the too short, can't-shoot Winslow and the scorer-not-shooter Richardson.

Miami's not going to get a star. They're not going to get anybody with Ira Winderman's list. If you trade a package of Winslow, Waiters, and Richardson, you will get good return, "good to great" return. Only then.