14-day changes April 13-26
-20% Cases. Look at that drop in Cases!
+2% Hospitalizations.
-2% Deaths. But Deaths are hovering closer and closer to flat.
7-day daily averages April 20-26
+2% Hospitalizations.
-2% Deaths. But Deaths are hovering closer and closer to flat.
7-day daily averages April 20-26
“Data anomaly day,” the Times notes. “New Jersey removed many cases”. But the Times gives a number that incorporates the data anomaly day (idk) 55,058 Cases. Down
44,531 Hospitalizations. Down.
706 Deaths. Down one. That's the way Deaths do, in tiny increments. COVID is determined to kill once it gets its clutches on a person and relinquishes only after fierce resistance.
1.57% D-H rate. Unchanged.
2,741,021 Vax. Down.
Herd Immunity Day
September 1. Makes me nauseous. It's a mirage and is only going to get more distant. I am exceedingly doubtful that we will ever reach the 90% (vaccination+previous recovery from infection) necessary for Herd Immunity. As written here on the April 25 data we are likely (in an Idiot Blogger's view of things) to "flatten the curve of Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, but given all the contingencies and problems mentioned in that post, I cannot foresee the day when the CDC declares that we have beaten COVID, that does, e.g. drop into and stay in double digits and then single. I cannot foresee that day.
President Biden Grade D
(At 10:29 p.m. on April 26, 572,652 Americans have been killed by COVID-19, about 103k less than the estimated 675,000 who were killed by the Spanish Flu over 100 years ago. I have been basing what I call Spanish Flu Conquest Day, the date COVID Deaths exceed the number of Spanish Flu dead, on 900 Deaths per day. We have been under 900/day every day this month (as a daily average over one week). Average daily Deaths have been slowly, incrementally falling every iteration of the weekly average since April 18 and on April 25 stood at 707. So 900 average daily Deaths looks this month a substantial overstatement to use as a baseline to calculate the SFCD. It has not been since the first Death on February 6, 2020. 1,290 per day have been Killed by COVID in those 444 days. In my amateur's estimation there is no reason to believe Deaths will skyrocket again to 3,341, the all-time average daily peak, on Jan. 26, 2021. 900/day was the figure I chose looking at the most recent trend line, mindful of the bad not-so-old days as most reasonably, slightly pessimistic baseline at the original position.So, continuing to use 900/day COVID Deaths will exceed SF Deaths on August 18.)
