CBS Sports has this layering of the Eastern Conference.

1)The Champ: Milwaukee Bucks

2) The main contenders: Philadelphia 76ers and Brooklyn Nets

3) In the mix: Miami Heat

 

 And this explanation:

The Heat have the best record in the East...so perhaps it's a bit unfair to have them in the third tier...

 At full strength, there's no question this is a dangerous team. ...They're the best 3-point shooting group in the league, they defend, they're tough, they have a clear identity. If all goes right, this team has a real chance to come out of the East.

 So, again, why are they in the third tier? For one, health is a major concern, even more so than other teams. This is an old core built featuring guys like Butler and Lowry who have notoriously struggled to stay on the court in recent years. They've missed a number of games already this season and there's no guarantee they can make it through (at least) three grueling playoff rounds. In addition, the Heat don't have elite talent on the level of Giannis, Embiid, or Durant, and that matters in the playoffs. 

I have been surprised by the harsh truths uttered by cognos on the "Heat". But would you really prefer another of Zach Lowe's "symphony" interpretations? So, yep to both of CBS' points. 

All you have to do is hobble and focus enough to finish as one of the top six teams. If you peak in time for the 'Loffs and you have thoroughbreds you're in a better place than a team of healthy, overachieving mudders. I would caveat only the comment on Kyle. He missed, what, 14 straight? But that was because of "personal reasons", NOT injury. Since we have no fucking idea what the personal reason was I don't s'pose it's wise to treat that as a one-off, but when has wisdom ever stopped me? I don't think that will repeat itself. However you can't count on Jimmy with his career-long history of injuries and his tendency toward bruised tailbones, irritated big toes and etc.