Wednesday, July 26, 2023

I just watched about 20 mins of Powell's press conference and an AP reporter asked the pertinent question, "How much is inflation at 3% hurting people?" and, following up, "Is getting inflation to 2% worth the cost of "softening" (i.e. higher unemployment) the labor force?" Powell acknowledged that historically higher unemployment would likely result but said that "high" inflation hurts everyone. 

It seems to me, and from their questions I think to some of the reporters, that this 2% goal is too rigid. A Wall Street Journal reporter asked why a pause today wasn't warranted given June's sparkly inflation report? Because it wasn't 2% (annualized) and because it was just one report. Powell deflected projection questions, e.g., if the next two months data ahead of the September Fed meeting are as the last two months' have been. He seems focused on getting inflation to 2% annually come what may. Do not like this.