Putin’s reign may not survive the impending fall of Crimea
On the day [June 24, 2023] of [Yevgeny] Prigozhin’s uprising, Russian dead and wounded numbered just over 223,000. Three years later, Russian losses in Ukraine have swelled more than sixfold, nearing 1.4 million.
Prigozhin understood something Putin could not: The Kremlin is incapable of defeating Ukraine on a conventional military basis.
Putin’s end in Ukraine is coming. Russia cannot continue to sustain these levels of military losses. On Tuesday, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte noted that Putin is losing as many as 35,000 Russian soldiers each month. He also said that Moscow is spending 50 percent of its government budget on its military. For reference, the U.S. spends only about 15 percent of its federal budget (and no more than 9 percent of its overall combined state and national government budgets) on defense.
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Putin’s end is coming in Crimea. As we and retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges have long argued, Crimea is the decisive terrain of this war. Ukraine does not even have to retake it — it needs only to render it untenable for Russian military use. That day is now fast approaching
The struggle for Crimea will likely culminate in Ukraine finally destroying Putin’s $4 billion Kerch Bridge. Can Putin politically survive the loss of Crimea to Ukraine? We highly doubt it.
As Ukraine seizes ‘first chance to win’, war horrors come home to Russia
President Putin has hinted at peace talks as the economy fails, people flee cities and toxic ‘oil rains’ fall.
