I'm a believer in betting markets as an accurate predictor of the future...in some subjects. In a presidential horse race, for example, they are as accurate as survey research polling. In similar long lead time one v. one matchups in sports, for another: Ohio vs Michigan, "Knicks"-"Spurs" in the NBA Finals. In the NBA regular season on the other hand, the games coming every other day on average, the line is interesting but I would not bet on it, so to speak.

Now, in the NBA and on other subjects, you can bet on just about anything. "Props" bets, i.e. an individual player's stats for a game, are just one example of how exotic sports futures investing has become. Mindless too. What data inform a wager that Terry Rozier will score under 12 points in a game against New Orleans? You're an addict if you make props bets. Easily manipulated too. 

The markets on LeBron James' next team are mindless. There is no data to make an informed investment. It's all hunches, guesses, wishes, and fears. So right now Polymarket investors have Golden State a close second, at 33.6%, to Cleveland (34.2%). Over on Kalshi, the odds are 32% and 36%. Yeah, the polls in two of the last three presidential elections were similarly precise. "Precise" has a meaning in statistics: your data is closely clustered together, just not around the bulls eye. "Accuracy" is the statistical term for darts that land near the bulls eye. There is no meaningful data on Golden State and Cleveland; no meaningful data on Miami or Philadelphia. Yeah, it's a little interesting--in the absence of data, to see where people put their money, but this isn't a horse race, there is no "track record" that can be checked for any of these horses, and the only intel is basically limited to what Shams Charania puts out. For what it's worth, and I do think Shams is worth a lot, it's among Cleveland, Miami, and Philadelphia (that is alphabetical listing only). Don't tell the dudes gambling their lives away at Polymarket and Kalshi that.