The Gamble-holics have no knowledge but their non-knowledge has coalesced the last two days:
On Kalshi the odds at post time are Miami 46%, Cleveland 27%.
On the much smaller volume Polymarket they are 46.4%-25.4%.
The darts they throw are precise. But are they accurate? They don't know. I don't know. That is the state of non-knowledge on July 20, 10:56 pm.
