Friday, March 06, 2020

A Tale of Super Tuesday


There was a change. Far and wide, lay a ruined country. 

Monseigneur (often a most worthy individual gentleman) was a national blessing. Monseigneur as a class had, somehow or other, brought things to this. Monseigneur began to run away!

But this was not the change. No. The change consisted in the appearance of strange faces of low caste. For, in these times, as Monseigneur raised his eyes, he would see some rough figure approaching on foot. As it advanced he would discern that it was a shaggy-haired person, grim, rough, and sullen. Such a person came upon him like a ghost. And when he lifted his eyes from it to the horizon and looked around, he saw similar figures, stopped by no obstacle, tending to centres all over the country. 

East, West, North, and South, heavy-treading, unkempt figures trudged through the woods, crushed the high grass and cracked the branches and strode on. Four lights broke out at the centre. The city was illuminating. 

East, West, North, and South, along the roads, guided by the beacons they could see lighted, the fierce figures came on, steadily wending their way. And the fire burned East, West, North, and South.
(Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities)

In my years of covering politics I don’t think I’ve ever seen anything like what happened in the 48 hours after South Carolina — millions of Democrats from all around the country, from many different demographics, turning as one and arriving at a common decision.

It was like watching a flock of geese or a school of fish, seemingly leaderless, sensing some shift in conditions, sensing each other’s intuitions, and smoothly shifting direction en masse.
(David Brooks, New York Times)

What was notable on Super Tuesday was the suddenness and velocity with which this migration took place.
(John F. Harris, Politico)

There were astounding turnout surges in middle-class and affluent suburbs. Turnout was up by 76 percent in the Virginia suburbs around Washington, Richmond and parts of Norfolk. Turnout was up 49 percent over all in Texas. Many of these new voters must be disaffected Republicans who now consider themselves Democrats.
(Brooks)

Joe Biden dug two big holes on Super Tuesday and each of them came with a name attached. Bernie Sanders and President Donald Trump are both staring into their political graves.

For the general election, the implications of Tuesday are equally urgent for Trump. Voter turnout in the primaries was up from 2016 in almost every state—in Virginia, for instance, turnout increased by more than two-thirds. The overwhelming evidence is that it is Trump, not any Democrat, who is stimulating this surge. Increased energy on the Democratic side, in the likely event this holds through the fall, means Trump must also stimulate new voters or it is shovel time for him, too.

Biden's revival is more indicative of something deep and important going on in the electorate precisely because it does not have a plausible precipitating event.

The more credible explanation was that these things were like well-timed sparks in a dry forest.

This is also the peril for Trump, the greatest movement politician of the past couple generations. Typically, movements compensate for smaller raw numbers with the greater passion of adherents. In this case, though, it’s likely he has inspired equal or greater passion among the opposition.
(Harris)