Wednesday, April 15, 2020

Joe Biden leads Trump in realclearpolitics composite averaging by 5.9% nationally. He leads in RCP's averaging in "battlegrounds" Florida by 0.04%, Wisconsin by 2.7%, Pennsylvania 3.8%, Michigan 4.4%, North Carolina by 3.4%, and, blink, Arizona by 4.4%. Trump leads in Texas by 2.6%. By 6.1% a majority of Americans disapprove of Trump's presidency, by a 3.3% majoity disapprove Trump's handling of the Trump Epidemic, by 9.8% majority approve Trump's handling of the economy and by a 23.5% majority they believe the country is on the "wrong track."

In order of significance:

1) Biden has consistently led in RCP averaging nationally and in every battleground state polled, including Arizona, except in Florida.
2) Trump's "floor" support is solid. In current RCP averaging it's 45%. Without knowing, I assume that Biden's is more elastic.
3) "Right track/wrong track" has always been the canary in the coal mine metric.
4) It's only April 15.
5) This is a difficult time for Trump.