Thursday, April 02, 2020

Trump Epidemic April 2 10:15 p.m.

245,070: total confirmed Cases.
5,949: total Killed.
2.4%: Mortality Rate. The worldwide rate is 5.1%.
9,090: Recovered.
1.52/1: Recovery/Death ratio. That is lower than it was last night when it was close to 2/1.
15,039: Cases "Cleared," i.e. deaths+recoveries.
31,698: New cases added in the last 25 hours.
230,031: current "Active", i.e. minus deaths and recoveries, cases.
+29,890: Net change (today's actives minus yesterday's actives) in burden to healthcare system in last 25 hours.

Is there any good news there? No. In particular in the U.S.:

1) The mortality rate continues to creep up. It was 2.2% yesterday and 1.2% a week or so ago. The U.S. rate is daily making a liar of Dr. Fauci who predicted to Trump it would be about 1%. It also belies Fauci's statement that the original social isolation measures "are having an effect." There is no evidence of that since he made that statement. The mortality rate has not slowed, much less reversed, it has increased at about the same inch-like rate for a week or more. And manifestly, the virus' spread has not been slowed, it continues to increase exponentially. Dr. Fauci is the best we've got. He's the best we've ever had. But demonstrably he is not proving to be too good here. I am increasingly concerned about Dr. Fauci's standing with Trump. Little devils are whispering in Trump's ear that Fauci is "deep state" and is "undermining" Trump. As if Trump needs any help there. This gives the right wing devils more to whisper about. Trump is not going to fire Fauci tomorrow but when Trump no longer has use for an individual he is quick to axe him. What if these trends continue on the same trajectory as they have been on for at least a week and show no signs of leveling or reversing? What if they continue to increase at about the same rate and it is shown, as it cannot not be shown, that Dr. Fauci has been seriously off in his predictions? What good will Fauci be to Trump then?

2) U.S. hospitals got twice as many new patients in today as they cleared and a net 29,890 more than they had yesterday. I do not know at what point but there will be some point when the dog that the python tried to swallow gets too bloated and kills the python.

No. There is no good news here. There is increasingly dire.