86,938 (actual July 25-31:78,433 ave/day).
My take on that forecast is "not bad" (see below).
CDC only forecasts out four weeks. By the week of Aug. 21 what percentage of kids will be in school? Even in just Florida I am getting conflicting start dates. I have no idea when the start dates are in other states. The key question is when will we see Delta begin to burn out?
It is obviously slowing. The gap between the dots is visually non-existent and much less than the previous gaps. The last, Aug. 21 dot is also clearly higher than the previous. So it's still rising but more slowly. Does that suggest a peak, with a quick burn out to follow? Not reasonable at all. CDC's forecasts will have to be higher once k-12 has been back in session for a few weeks. Guessing the forecasts for the last couple of weeks of September will see a bulge.
Now, why would that be? The death interval, 3-4 weeks. By the week of Aug. 21 all of the cases from the weeks June 30-July 6, when cases clearly began rising (ave/day 12.5k) through July 21 (ave/day 41.5k) will have been baked into the actual death numbers. We should expect to see separation between the dots when the cases from the weeks July 22-28-forward are "processed" into deaths. Those case numbers are:
56,987 July 22-28
There is a change in the look of the cases forecast graph.
In my view "not bad" either. Actual average daily deaths were last worse on May 26.
Not nearly as noticeable a gap between any two of the dots.
56,987 July 22-28
71,617 July 23-29
77,275 July 24-30
78,422 July 25-31
So, multiples of two to six cases are yet to be processed as deaths. By far the worst is coming. When it will peak is the key question.
