The Idea of India Still a Good Idea?

I've banked a lot on India's experience with Delta. For good reason: an almost wholly unvaxed nation  which, like the U.S., with vaccines, had beaten COVID-19, India saw the mother of all blow-ups in April. From beginning, the week of March 21, Delta peaked in just eight weeks, the week of May 9 and then just as quickly and symmetrically as it rose it flamed out. 

India cases March 21-May 9.

India was template for Delta at its worst. The U.S. couldn't help but do better. And we have done better, cases nowhere near India's peak, deaths inching up not taking a great leap, Delta would pass over us too in eight weeks. Ah, but there's the rub: "we have done better," not "we did better," for Delta is not done with us yet. 

                                                           U.S. weeks July 11-Aug. 8.

So far so good-ish, we're only five weeks into our outbreak. What makes me squeamish is CDC's forecast. CDC forecasts four weeks out and as you can see there is no leveling of cases through the week of Sept. 11, which is nine weeks from Delta's dawn in the U.S. 

It's just a forecast. I know that. But nothing on which forecasting is based that I can think of would project Delta a longer stay in the than in India. And the forecast did not call for a peak in our eighth week. Now I'm getting sickish.