Friday, October 08, 2021

COVID-19 BIDEN +260

The New York Times only has that one woman pictured earlier tabulating COVID-19 data so that for October 7 is unavailable as I begin this post. So, filler.

One way to fairly compare President Biden's handling of COVID-19 with that of his illegitimate, disgraced predecessor is to compare total deaths in the U.S. through January 20, Inauguration Day, and total deaths since Biden assumed the presidency. I get it, you can quibble, that is a major purpose of statistics it seems. Alternatively, you could compare deaths per day. That seems to me unfair to the incumbent. The first few months starting in March 2020, COVID was just getting started. It wasn't until 46-1 gave up that the summer 2020 skyrocket occurred, followed by the even higher-flying winter lift off. On the other hand, Biden had the advantage of the Trump vaccines that Trump never did and Biden had Original COVID killed dead until the Delta Dawn. He, and CDC badly underestimated Delta, relaxed mitigation measures and Delta cases, hospitalizations, and deaths zoomed again. The discredit for that is all on President Biden. So it seems fair to me, anyway, and at least it's easier, to compare total deaths under the two presidents and on my chosen metric President Biden is in trouble.

There were 392,428 deaths through Jan. 20, 2021 (per medicaleconomics.com), 396,837 per covidtracking.com and over 400,000 per cnn.com. We're going to the apply the statistically questionable method of averaging the three for Trump COVID deaths. Summing those figures and dividing by three we arrive at an average of 396,422 Trump deaths. At this writing there have been a cumulative total of 707,916 COVID deaths in the U.S.(per NYT). The difference between 707,916 and Trump's average of 396,422 are therefore Biden deaths. That number is 311,494 killed in about 8.5 months,  almost 85,000 fewer than Trump killed in 10.5 months. For the last two weeks Biden has averaged 1,800-1,900 average deaths/day. At the lower range of average daily deaths if that rate does not fall further, Biden will surpass Trump in forty eight days, on November 23. At the 1,900 rate it will be forty-five days, November 20, exactly ten months from Inauguration Day. However you calculate the gross numbers, Biden will surpass Trump at some point. That is bad for the country and it is a failure for Biden...Okay, I wasted enough time that the Quasi statistician has reached her count. Let's see what we got:

14-day changes

-22% cases.
-20% hospitalizations
-13% deaths. 

Three cheers.

What do we predict for the 7-day daily averages, especially for deaths. I don't guys and gal guys. I don't know about deaths. I don't have to guess but I will. Deaths will drop a small number and still be above 1,800/day. Answer is!

99,602 cases ave/day day Oct. 1 through 7. 1.6k fewer than the Oct. 6 iteration. WONDERFUL NEWS. Below 100k! First time since the Delta surge, no? I think so. Yes! Lowest since Aug. 4! Release the ๐ŸŽˆ๐ŸŽˆof joy.
71,054 hospitalizations ave/day same time frame. Down 1,153 from the Oct. 6 it. FANTASTIC.
1,765 deaths! We blew through the tenacious 1.8k floor! Down 45 deaths/day from Oct. 6. WOO-HOO. ๐Ÿ’—๐Ÿ’–๐Ÿ’“

The pace of progress is picking up. Longg way to go but the graph lines are and have been for many days down, down, down. A very positive day for the country and the president, EE's and FF'S, very good indeed. 



Good night.