*The line has risen in the LSU-FU game. FU is now a 12.5 favorite. Boy. And it's only an hour before kickoff. FU 30-17 or 35-23?. Fuck it, I think the "Tigers" can keep it within 12. Nickel on LSU.
The line has dropped more dramatically in Texas-Okie State from 5.5 to 3. I already played that one and got locked in at the much more favorable price. Glad I did. That line was wrong at 5.5.
I add this additional nostrum on strategic speculation: Bet early in the week. Vegas sets the initial line. Investors then bet it up or down. Vegas is more likely to be out of step with reality as the speculators perceive it before they gain their speculation.
On the other hand I wish (I think) I had had the benefit of my fellow gamblers on Indiana-MSU. That line has dropped, inexplicably to me, to 4.
Dear lord, A&M has now jumped three points to 11.5 at Missouri. I was leaning A&M at 8.5. I ain't leanin' no mo'. Not touchin' that game.
Oh lord. The Jawja-KY Jelly line has dropped to 21.5 from 23.5. So now the line score translation is 28-6 or 30-10. Might could lose my house with all these additional plays but I'm putting five on the "Dawgs."
Oh God, Old Miss. is now only a 1-point fave at Tenn., a drop from 3. Tennessee sucks, okay? I have an abiding conviction that the "God Damns" will win this but didn't like giving 3 in Knoxville. Well, I like -1 better. When you believe, you gotta go. I'm goin'. Five on Mississippi.
Oct. 15, 4:45 p.m.
You’re feeling hot? Take a cold shower. You’re feeling unlucky? What’s luck got to do with it? This isn’t a game of chance. You want to roll the dice, the craps table is over there. There is no such thing as being hot or cold or being on a roll or having or lacking momentum to the gambling man. How could there be? Every game you bet on is different, every week is different. You have no history. You have never played before. Those are the mindsets of the gambling man. This is about wisdom. You have some wisdom, the House has more. You have some information, the House has more. The gambling man's wisdom is in carefully choosing games where the House's superior information does not inoculate it against unwisdom. When you have these mindsets and adopt these nostrums, you will still lose money if you play long enough. The House always wins in the end. The gambling man gambles for one fundamental reason: because to him (or her (mostly hims)) it's fun. If it's not fun for you, go to work (the pay's steady). To the gambling man Man is at his best when Man is at play. For the gambling man the wisdom is in the reaching. The play's the thing. You always win when you have fun.
I only bet on college tackle football and by far the best time to bet is early in the season. There are so many schools playing big time football and the yearly turnover of one-quarter of the rosters, not to mention coaching changes, means that Las Vegas really has no idea early on. On your favorite school the House may not have superior information and it is definitely not wiser.
We're now in week seven, definitely not early. The House is definitely wiser, definitely has more info than you do. In these circumstances, I look to games outside the top 25--if you really know one of those "in other action" schools, Vegas is less likely to have the advantage. I looked under the top 25 this week and I didn't see any that grabbed me. For the most part the Las Vegas lines accurately describe the reality that I perceive. Last week, with the exception of that foolish OSU-MD line I thought the House was really good and I almost didn't play. Which neither encourages me nor makes me wary of pushing my "luck", 'cause I'm a gamblin' man.
Ready to have some fun? Home teams first.
Tonight in the Beijing time zone #9 Nike-13.5 Cal. Who knows? Play in Normal People Time if you want attention.
Same-same on San Jose St #25 San Diego State-8. Do you know the way to San Jose? No.
Saturday:
#3 Cincinnati -21 UCF. Don't know, don't care to find out.
Man, one team that is not getting any love from Vegas is East Lansing Spartak, now #10. They play at 2-3 Indiana and are all of 4.5 point faves. Nickel on Sparty to win by 5+.
#25 Texas-5.5 #12 Oklahoma State. Never laugh at the House. The House always gets the last laugh. Disagree agreeably. One of the things that makes college tackle football endearing is the emotional swings from week to week of young testosterone waxing and waning young men. Ask any investor, if a team is coming off an emotional win or loss there is more likely than not going to be a hangover. The Texas kids are humiliated laughing stocks. They now know that their first year coach is an imbecile. They cannot believe in Sarkisian; they can't have had a good week practicing. Nickel on the "Boones" to lose by five or less (or win).
#17 Arkansas-3.5 Auburn. Emotional loss for the "Hogs" last week. Not playing.
LSU #20 Florida-10. Two coaches each with a bone in his brain one of whom may have a noose around his neck with a loss here, especially if his name is "Ed" "Orgeron." No play.
(3-3) Missouri #21 Texas A&M-8.5. Emotional win for Dino Fisher last week. Prolly gives the players wood in Mizzou but 8.5 is a lot to give on the road. No play.
#1 Georgia -23.5 #11 KY Jelly. Fun stat: Jawja has beaten every team it has played (except Clemson) by more than this spread :o That includes at then-18th Auburn last week and then-8th Ark (37-0) the week before. :) I actually don't know who Auburn's coach is but he must be pretty good; Ark's Sam Pittman is good. Kirby Smart is good, Mark Stoops is good. Kirby's got the smarter student ath-a-letes. If the "Silver Britches" take the birch to KY between the hedges by the same score they gunned the "Tigers" on the Plains last week, I win (if I invest in Jawja, which if I had any history, (which I don't), I never have)). When I'm on the fence about a game I like to imagine the line in a real score. Which is more likely here, Georgia 34-10 or 33-10? How can you make a wise choice where there's no difference? I'm not doing it. No play.
#2 Iowa-11.5 Purdue. B1G game last week for "Hawks." Draining, fortunate win. I have to say I'm a little wary of Iowa after last week. They shoulda lost that game. Woulda but for James "not prepared" to lose his QB "on the road" (his words. (It would have been better at home, James? You're an idiot.)). And I'm wary of this opponent for IA. Didn't Purdue upset them some time recently? Oh! Yeah, like last year, don't know if it was an upset but "Boilers" won 24-20. Maybe a COVID game? Iowa 24-12 or 21-10?...Nickel on IA to win and cover.
(5-1) Baylor-6 #19 (5-1) BYU. Wow. Why is that? "Raping Bears" beat then-14th Iowa State by two in Whacko, lost at then-19th Okie State by 10, pinned the "'Eers" 45-20 last week also in Whacko. BYU had a big stumble in Provo last week against 3-3 Boise. "Cougs" were a 6-point fave and lost by 11. BYU was tenth when they lost. That's a big stumble! But they beat Arizona, then-21st Utah, and then-19th, now 18th, Arizona State to start the season. All of those games were played in Provo. I would think the Boise loss would be one that would piss off BYU, that they'd vengeance-rape the "Bears", that my surprise at that line would be their enragement. But I don't know anything about these two teams. Las Vegas certainly has more info than I do on this one. I'm leaning BYU but have to see if this settles into real, not forced, belief. Okay. I have made my decision. BYU’s QB’s name is BAYLOR ROMNEY. Nickel on the Mormon Underwear.
Omg, how many top 25 games do we have?
3-2 Miss State "Cowbells" #5 Alabama-17. Seems like this could be a vengeance game for the "Tide". Leaning Bama but no abiding conviction. No play.
#4 Oklahoma-11.5 TCU. Lol. I didn't mean that. Nickel on "Horned Christians."
Dear God.
(4-2) Tennessee #13 Mississippi-3. The Lane Bowl! Ee-motional, very lucky, win last week by the "God Damns." Draining? For the Miss players, yeah. They won't have the passion that, at least, the fans on Rocky Top will have. I'm not playing this.
Two more.
(4-1) Boston College #22 North Carolina State-3. Nickel on "Pigeons."
Finally, (3-2) Utah #18 Arizona State-1. Arizona State is good. Number 18 and they're only a one point favorite? Doesn't sound right. Ah, but the game's in Salt Lake. Nope, no play.
