That hamster wheel of mediocrity -- which has been shielded by making two trips to the NBA Finals and another to the Eastern Conference finals earlier this decade -- is what Riley was referring to at his end-of-season news conference. [when he said]:
"We are just not good enough. We are not happy with it," Heat president Pat Riley said after the season. "This is the first time in those three years that we have an opportunity to do something with our roster, with our flexibility, with our players."
The question is what can Miami really [italics in original] do about it? Yes, they will undoubtedly be in the mix for Antetokounmpo. But if they can't get him, is there another path? ...
"What can Miami really do about it?" Tim Bontemps doesn't sound impressed. Either am I. I am on record that Miami will not land Antetokounmpo. My reasons, which I will just summarize here, are
1) Antetokounmpo does not seem like a South Beach guy to me.
2) 44-38 forever.
2a) Antetokounmpo wants to go some place where he can win a championship. By himself, he will not be able to do that in Miami. The "Heat" "are just not good enough." 601 Biscayne has a monopoly on a niche skill: signing players not good enough to sign with other teams and turning them into important contributors on a roster not good enough to get off the "hamsteer wheel" if 44-38. I said it's a niche skill.
There is no one player, not SGA, not Wemby, and not Giannis, who can transmogrify this Forever Mediocre Machine into a title contender. It will take multiple players (like the Big Three) at a comparable level to Antetokounmpo to win a title in Miami. How long will that take--three years? four? Giannis is 31. Boston and New York, any team, say, in the final four of each conference, offers Antetokounmpo a better chance at getting a ring than does Miami. In briefest form, by my lights, it is not in Giannis' interest to come to Miami.
2b) Neither do I see why trading Giannis to Miami is in Beer's interest. Do the dreck that the "Heat" have on this roster would entice Milwaukee? "Ooh, Tyler Herro, 3J, Ke'el Ware and maybe Nikola Jovic plus three firsts, I have to go jack my dick just thinking about that!" Thoughts Jon Horst has never had. It is hard for me to believe that that package is the best that Beer can get. In short, it is not in Milwaukee's interest to move Giannis to Miami.
3) The Bam-Giannis question. They are not complementary players, they are largely duplicative of each other. Giannis is FAR more talented, far more accomplished and acclaimed, but like, they have similar games and are similar in size. We went through something similar this past regular season with Tyler Herro and Norman Powell: too similar! They didn't mesh well. Also, with Giannis, Spo can toss his Miami wheel offense into the shit can. Giannis needs the ball, Giannis needs to be the Man. But Bam is Miami's captain and is their one untouchable. What happens when you bring in a significantly better version of Bam to play with Bam? Who is the de facto captain?
I think 3 will work itself out and I could be wrong on both 2a and 2b. It's a hobby of mine.
Despite all of the above doubts, the futures investors at Kalshi have right to the present put 64% of their money on the "Heat" to get Giannis. That is down from last night, it peaked when it appeared that the "Knicks" were going to lose, at 70+%. It bottomed out today at under 60% because of one guy, Bill Simmons, a Beans fan, who on the sole basis that he is a cogno, that is, without any inside intel, "changed his mind" today from Beans has no interest in Giannis, to oh yes they do. Boston is now 27% to land Antetokounmpo, down from 29% an hour ago.
We will know shortly, perhaps by the end of Friday, not later than when the "Heat" is "on the clock" on draft night, June 23.
