It is new, first time since the founding of the PRC that off-shore waters have been claimed.
It's principal aim is Japan. Those two goddamned uninhabited islands over which both countries claim sovereignty is within the new zone.
Zhongnanhai is also employing a version of Mao's strategy to "Let a hundred flowers bloom"--so it can cut off their heads. It wants to see how far America is willing to go in defense of Japan. China views world relations in zero-sum terms. It doesn't trust America, doesn't trust Obama, and considers Obama weak. "So now," the Chinese think, "we see where you really stand." That is Chinese thick-headedness for America's commitment to Japan is not new (since the end of World War II) and is not hidden (It's in a treaty which the Chinese can, like, read.) Alternatively, if, as some say, Xi Jinping "miscalculated" the American response, then he is beyond thick-headed. I don't believe Xi is that thick-headed. I believe the American response was expected. Chinese do not like American directness, this was direct, and China does not like it. I believe, in Chinese eyes, America has confirmed the correctness of the zero-sum world view.
China is proud, stubborn, insecure, paranoid. It is a first-rate economic power and wants to be treated as a first-rate world power (pride); "But, are we really? Nobody likes us." (insecure (It's not personal, it's just because you're Chinese.)). The Center is using domestic pride and insecurity--"We're a paper tiger if we don't respond to this provocation!" to garner support. (Chinese are indirect: criticism is support, see?) They will never back off this line in the water they've drawn; "They're encircling us. See!" They have a paranoia of encirclement. In his two secret messages to his successors Deng Xiaoping wrote "Enemy troops are outside the walls. We should be mainly on the defensive." This new defense zone is a classic Chinese defensive maneuver to set up an offensive. They see America, correctly, as over-extended. They don't see America as having the "will," the "pride," the stubbornness for a Sino-American military confrontation. I hope they are right there too, but I don't know what the Pentagon thinks.
It's principal aim is Japan. Those two goddamned uninhabited islands over which both countries claim sovereignty is within the new zone.
Zhongnanhai is also employing a version of Mao's strategy to "Let a hundred flowers bloom"--so it can cut off their heads. It wants to see how far America is willing to go in defense of Japan. China views world relations in zero-sum terms. It doesn't trust America, doesn't trust Obama, and considers Obama weak. "So now," the Chinese think, "we see where you really stand." That is Chinese thick-headedness for America's commitment to Japan is not new (since the end of World War II) and is not hidden (It's in a treaty which the Chinese can, like, read.) Alternatively, if, as some say, Xi Jinping "miscalculated" the American response, then he is beyond thick-headed. I don't believe Xi is that thick-headed. I believe the American response was expected. Chinese do not like American directness, this was direct, and China does not like it. I believe, in Chinese eyes, America has confirmed the correctness of the zero-sum world view.
China is proud, stubborn, insecure, paranoid. It is a first-rate economic power and wants to be treated as a first-rate world power (pride); "But, are we really? Nobody likes us." (insecure (It's not personal, it's just because you're Chinese.)). The Center is using domestic pride and insecurity--"We're a paper tiger if we don't respond to this provocation!" to garner support. (Chinese are indirect: criticism is support, see?) They will never back off this line in the water they've drawn; "They're encircling us. See!" They have a paranoia of encirclement. In his two secret messages to his successors Deng Xiaoping wrote "Enemy troops are outside the walls. We should be mainly on the defensive." This new defense zone is a classic Chinese defensive maneuver to set up an offensive. They see America, correctly, as over-extended. They don't see America as having the "will," the "pride," the stubbornness for a Sino-American military confrontation. I hope they are right there too, but I don't know what the Pentagon thinks.
