Walking back from lunch just now I thought "I wouldn't put it past Trumpists to lie to pollsters." Right-wingers have long had a mantra: "Annoy The Media," do something or vote for someone that will annoy the media.
This has come up with me in the following fashion. In the beginning of this election cycle when I was trying to figure out who the Trumpists were I swear I saw articles-more than one-that Trumpists were not less educated than normal people. I am so certain in my memory of that (but I could be wrong). Now and for a long while it has been unanimous: Trumpists are less-educated. My brother-the-Trumpist has a college degree; he is, as he says, "the smartest dumb-ass you know."
But, M.B.T.T. is an "Annoy the Media" (and aggrieve-your-brother) type, too. He is also embarrassed to be a Trumpist. He voted for him! but is "in the closet" as he says. This is a very political guy. Wears his political preferences, literally: shirts; yard signs in front of his house. Trump? Nada. He sent me a photo of him holding a political sign-it was for Marco Rubio. He mentioned to a fellow Republican neighbor that he was going to vote for Trump and she walked off in disgust.
I have seen the photographs of M.B.T.T.'s fellow Trumpists and they look like cretins, wholly consistent with the recent demographic reports. My brother does not look like that, which may be cause for some of his embarrassment.
I concluded my walk thinking "If [M.B.T.T.] was polled I believe beyond a reasonable doubt that he would answer truthfully to his political preference and to his educational level." So some walks are not productive of good thought. But what about other Trumpists?
When I got back to the office I checked out 538:
While the Northeast had long appeared to be a reasonably strong region for Trump, the polls two weeks ago suggested it was a tossup whether he’d get to 50 percent of the vote in Connecticut; instead he won it easily with 58 percent of the vote. It looked as though he’d probably lose a couple of congressional districts in the Washington suburbs in Maryland even if he won the state; instead, he swept all eight districts.
In other words, something changed for the better for Trump in the past couple of weeks.
-Nate Silver.
I immediately reverted to "Annoy the Media" as the explanation. Silver doesn't offer that explanation. Silver's explanation, or "theory," is much more plausible: Did you know that Republican turnout yesterday was abysmally low? I was shocked.
New Hampshire 27.8%
Wisconsin 25.6
Alabama 23.9
Ohio 22.3
Missouri 20.7
South Carolina 20.3
Idaho 19.7
Arkansas 19.2
Mississippi 19.1
I concluded my walk thinking "If [M.B.T.T.] was polled I believe beyond a reasonable doubt that he would answer truthfully to his political preference and to his educational level." So some walks are not productive of good thought. But what about other Trumpists?
When I got back to the office I checked out 538:
While the Northeast had long appeared to be a reasonably strong region for Trump, the polls two weeks ago suggested it was a tossup whether he’d get to 50 percent of the vote in Connecticut; instead he won it easily with 58 percent of the vote. It looked as though he’d probably lose a couple of congressional districts in the Washington suburbs in Maryland even if he won the state; instead, he swept all eight districts.
In other words, something changed for the better for Trump in the past couple of weeks.
-Nate Silver.
I immediately reverted to "Annoy the Media" as the explanation. Silver doesn't offer that explanation. Silver's explanation, or "theory," is much more plausible: Did you know that Republican turnout yesterday was abysmally low? I was shocked.
New Hampshire 27.8%
Wisconsin 25.6
Alabama 23.9
Ohio 22.3
Missouri 20.7
South Carolina 20.3
Idaho 19.7
Arkansas 19.2
Mississippi 19.1
Georgia 18.8
Michigan 17.8
Tennessee 17.6
Virginia 17.0
Oklahoma 16.5
Texas 16.4
Florida 16.3
North Carolina 15.8
Pennsylvania 15.8
Illinois 15.3
Massachusetts 12.8
Vermont 12.5
Arizona 11.4
Maryland 10.6
Delaware 10.0
Louisiana 8.9
Connecticut 8.7
Rhode Island 7.8
New York 6.4
Had no idea. Really surprised. So Silver's eminently sensible theory is not that unknown hordes of Trumpists emerged from the forest, from under their rocks, to vote for Trump to "Annoy The Media," rather, that NeverTrumpers see the handwriting on the wall (or on the sidewalk in chalk), are discouraged and just didn't see the point of voting.
So that was a really unproductive walk.
