Sunday, August 07, 2016

Hillary Clinton's lead expanded over night with the release of a new poll to a new RCP record of 7% and a new 538 record 7.1%. Clinton's chances of winning are also at a new high, 83.4% and Trump's at a new low of 16.5%.

The 538 electoral map has the red states in a diminishing middle of a blue state encirclement. Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, D.C., Virginia and North Carolina are an uninterrupted blue pincer on the Atlantic, and, skipping South Carolina and Georgia, Florida begins to round the circle in the southeast. The Pacific coast is solid blue and California begins to round the circle from the southwest. The middle shrinks from the east with Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan blue, from the west with Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado and even Arizona the palest shade of blue, and in the midwest with Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota. In all, 28 states representing 353 electoral votes are some shade of blue.