I don't get the sense many people are listening to Trump anymore. They've made up their minds.
For Trumpists it doesn't matter what Trump says now. They heard his dog whistles in the beginning and have been in a trance since. They are possessed as cult followers get with their Leaders-Hitler, Charles Manson, David Koresh.
I wonder if Vladimir Putin is paying attention anymore. Putin is an opportunist, not a gambler. He may see his opportunity passing. He saw his own, and Paul Manafort's, client Viktor Yanukovych, had no popular support in Ukraine and ditched him.
Clinton supporters have made up their minds.
That leaves who? There are some people who didn't pay much attention to the primaries, people who are once-every-four voters, some of them watched the conventions, Trump got a decent bounce out of his convention, Clinton got a nice bounce out of hers, and there are some who didn't even watch the conventions. For those latter voters traditionally the election doesn't start until after Labor Day. That's September 5 this year, three weeks away. So Trump still has time.
That is the way it has been traditionally. This year? Neither Trump nor Clinton are strangers who have to be introduced to the public. Especially Trump. And it would be hard for even this category of casual, vote-as-a-civic-duty voter, to avoid Trump's statements the last few weeks. If they did miss Trump's nuggets they are aggressive fucking channel changers.
I don't think many even once-every-four voters missed Trump's biggest nuggets. They heard them and then they switched the channel. Because Trump's nuggets turned them off, disgusted them, scared them, made them question his mental stability. Betcha there weren't many who said to themselves, "Hmm, maybe I'll vote for that guy." BETCHA.
So barring an "October surprise,"and I don't think Putin is going to put any more of his money on a horse when there's no horse race, why would he want to antagonize even further than he has the next president?, I think this is pretty much all baked in. The polls will go up a bit, the polls will go down a bit, but I'm going to stick with my pre-conventions prediction that after both Clinton would have a 4-5 point lead and would hold it for the duration. I think most everyone who intends to vote has heard and seen enough and have made up their minds.
And if that comes to pass it will be the first prediction of mine to come to pass this political season. Which I wish would go the fuck away already. Sunday: Sunderland at Man City. :)
For Trumpists it doesn't matter what Trump says now. They heard his dog whistles in the beginning and have been in a trance since. They are possessed as cult followers get with their Leaders-Hitler, Charles Manson, David Koresh.
I wonder if Vladimir Putin is paying attention anymore. Putin is an opportunist, not a gambler. He may see his opportunity passing. He saw his own, and Paul Manafort's, client Viktor Yanukovych, had no popular support in Ukraine and ditched him.
Clinton supporters have made up their minds.
That leaves who? There are some people who didn't pay much attention to the primaries, people who are once-every-four voters, some of them watched the conventions, Trump got a decent bounce out of his convention, Clinton got a nice bounce out of hers, and there are some who didn't even watch the conventions. For those latter voters traditionally the election doesn't start until after Labor Day. That's September 5 this year, three weeks away. So Trump still has time.
That is the way it has been traditionally. This year? Neither Trump nor Clinton are strangers who have to be introduced to the public. Especially Trump. And it would be hard for even this category of casual, vote-as-a-civic-duty voter, to avoid Trump's statements the last few weeks. If they did miss Trump's nuggets they are aggressive fucking channel changers.
I don't think many even once-every-four voters missed Trump's biggest nuggets. They heard them and then they switched the channel. Because Trump's nuggets turned them off, disgusted them, scared them, made them question his mental stability. Betcha there weren't many who said to themselves, "Hmm, maybe I'll vote for that guy." BETCHA.
So barring an "October surprise,"and I don't think Putin is going to put any more of his money on a horse when there's no horse race, why would he want to antagonize even further than he has the next president?, I think this is pretty much all baked in. The polls will go up a bit, the polls will go down a bit, but I'm going to stick with my pre-conventions prediction that after both Clinton would have a 4-5 point lead and would hold it for the duration. I think most everyone who intends to vote has heard and seen enough and have made up their minds.
And if that comes to pass it will be the first prediction of mine to come to pass this political season. Which I wish would go the fuck away already. Sunday: Sunderland at Man City. :)
