If Vladimir Putin thinks Hillary Clinton is going to win the U.S. presidential election and right now she has her biggest gap ever over Trump, 6.9%, a tick up from her previous high, 6.8, then I believe that Putin's "October surprise" to help Donald Trump will be an incursion into the Baltics, perhaps just a credible feint to give plausuble deniability, probably in Estonia. That would immediately turn the presidential race into one between an "anti-war" candidate, Trump, and a hesitating, tentative Clinton.
Surely, U.S. intelligence would detect such a thing: Did they detect Russia's invasion of Ukraine? Acted pretty surprised as I recall.
Putin is an opportunist. He is intent on destabilizing the West, particularly NATO, particularly NATO'S western front. And he would like to get as much of the former Soviet Union back as he can. Everyone knows, so Putin knows, that NATO cannot stop a Russian invasion of any of the Baltic states short of tactical nuclear weapons and we know from Ukraine that Putin and his cronies think they can win a tactical nuclear war in their neighborhood. They are counting on Barack Obama not going strategic nuclear on them and they are counting correctly. When NATO troops are fighting Russian troops they are reasonably confident that NATO will capitulate rather than go tactical; they know that if NATO does go tactical they can and will obliterate as much of Eastern Europe as they desire; and they are confident, they believe it more probable than not that Barack Obama will not respond with general nuclear war between the U.S. and Russia. Put that way, their confidence level is beyond a reasonable doubt.
Trump, witting or unwitting, is a Russian tool, and will go rhetorically nuclear--"NO NUCLEAR WAR WITH RUSSIA OVER ESTONIA!" If we are taken by surprise by a Russian invasion of Estonia, which I suggest in the strongest possible terms we not be, but if we are, as we were in Ukraine, then we cannot prevent it, we will be left with the responses in the preceding paragraph, and Hillary Clinton will be in a tight spot. If she comes out pro-war the American people will have been unprepared for that. Nuclear war with Russia over ESTONIA? If she comes out pro-war and Obama is pro-war that makes the Obama-Clinton team the pro-nuclear-war-with-Russia team. That puts them both in tight spots, her, a political tight spot. If she comes out pro-war and Obama, as predicted, is anti-war, that puts her in a tight spot politically. And if she comes out anti-war then Trump can say "SEE, I WAS RIGHT AGAIN!" Tight spot.
The only way to avoid these unbearably tight political spots is to plan for a Russian incursion in the Baltics NOW. Prepare NATO, prepare the U.S. military, prepare the American people. That preparation would mean that the American people would get behind the president and his former secretary of state as the American people always do in times of foreign crisis and it would neuter Trump. But that preparation, moving massive amounts of troops into the Baltics, putting NATO's and our military on high alert, moving forward NATO's and the U.S.' tactical nuclear weapons, would be extraordinarily belligerent, would be taken by the Russians as so, and would push the world closer to general nuclear war. Precisely what it would seek to prevent. If our intelligence is accurate, and see above, and the Russians are preparing an incursion, our (NATO/U.S.) counter-preparation still would push us all closer to the brink. If our intelligence is accurate and Russia is not preparing an incursion, it would piss the Russians the fuck off but I don't think, not having the thought previously, they would then decide, "WE INVADE!" If our intelligence is not accurate either way and we mobilize then of course we look reckless and stupid, we look like Russians in other words, or naive and unprepared, like Americans in other words. The Russians could even feint, see what our response is and act accordingly.
And if the Russian counter-response to either of our responses is to not invade then they look like peace lovers we look like assholes and they just wait and invade after the election. If it's President Hillary Clinton, then she's right back in the cross-hairs. If it's President Trump they have clear sailing.
It's all about making the best of your opportunities.
These are dangerous, dangerous times friends and Russians. And with that my ship sails. Good night.
Surely, U.S. intelligence would detect such a thing: Did they detect Russia's invasion of Ukraine? Acted pretty surprised as I recall.
Putin is an opportunist. He is intent on destabilizing the West, particularly NATO, particularly NATO'S western front. And he would like to get as much of the former Soviet Union back as he can. Everyone knows, so Putin knows, that NATO cannot stop a Russian invasion of any of the Baltic states short of tactical nuclear weapons and we know from Ukraine that Putin and his cronies think they can win a tactical nuclear war in their neighborhood. They are counting on Barack Obama not going strategic nuclear on them and they are counting correctly. When NATO troops are fighting Russian troops they are reasonably confident that NATO will capitulate rather than go tactical; they know that if NATO does go tactical they can and will obliterate as much of Eastern Europe as they desire; and they are confident, they believe it more probable than not that Barack Obama will not respond with general nuclear war between the U.S. and Russia. Put that way, their confidence level is beyond a reasonable doubt.
Trump, witting or unwitting, is a Russian tool, and will go rhetorically nuclear--"NO NUCLEAR WAR WITH RUSSIA OVER ESTONIA!" If we are taken by surprise by a Russian invasion of Estonia, which I suggest in the strongest possible terms we not be, but if we are, as we were in Ukraine, then we cannot prevent it, we will be left with the responses in the preceding paragraph, and Hillary Clinton will be in a tight spot. If she comes out pro-war the American people will have been unprepared for that. Nuclear war with Russia over ESTONIA? If she comes out pro-war and Obama is pro-war that makes the Obama-Clinton team the pro-nuclear-war-with-Russia team. That puts them both in tight spots, her, a political tight spot. If she comes out pro-war and Obama, as predicted, is anti-war, that puts her in a tight spot politically. And if she comes out anti-war then Trump can say "SEE, I WAS RIGHT AGAIN!" Tight spot.
The only way to avoid these unbearably tight political spots is to plan for a Russian incursion in the Baltics NOW. Prepare NATO, prepare the U.S. military, prepare the American people. That preparation would mean that the American people would get behind the president and his former secretary of state as the American people always do in times of foreign crisis and it would neuter Trump. But that preparation, moving massive amounts of troops into the Baltics, putting NATO's and our military on high alert, moving forward NATO's and the U.S.' tactical nuclear weapons, would be extraordinarily belligerent, would be taken by the Russians as so, and would push the world closer to general nuclear war. Precisely what it would seek to prevent. If our intelligence is accurate, and see above, and the Russians are preparing an incursion, our (NATO/U.S.) counter-preparation still would push us all closer to the brink. If our intelligence is accurate and Russia is not preparing an incursion, it would piss the Russians the fuck off but I don't think, not having the thought previously, they would then decide, "WE INVADE!" If our intelligence is not accurate either way and we mobilize then of course we look reckless and stupid, we look like Russians in other words, or naive and unprepared, like Americans in other words. The Russians could even feint, see what our response is and act accordingly.
And if the Russian counter-response to either of our responses is to not invade then they look like peace lovers we look like assholes and they just wait and invade after the election. If it's President Hillary Clinton, then she's right back in the cross-hairs. If it's President Trump they have clear sailing.
It's all about making the best of your opportunities.
These are dangerous, dangerous times friends and Russians. And with that my ship sails. Good night.
