The pieces are in place for Trump to wind up like Herbert Hoover...
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Her-bert Hoo-ver! Her-bert Hoo-ver!
...
“In a clear-eyed, sober assessment, if on November 3, 2020 there are more than 100,000 dead and the unemployment rate is at 15 percent, Trump is not going to get reelected. We could resurrect George Washington and Thomas Jefferson and I doubt they could survive that either.”
-Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at financial firm RSM U.S.
...
“He can still resurrect his agenda — if the virus tapers off by summer.” But he’s in danger of losing in November, and the risks are growing daily. The public will not give him high grades for anticipating and dealing with this crisis. But he’s a master salesman and could spin a story by October that things are turning around. But the Democrats’ ads will just keep repeating his dismissive comments on the virus from this March.”
-said Gregory Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist at AGF investments.
Other analysts note that Trump’s odds of winning in online betting markets have actually risen during the coronavirus crisis. And the nation is now so polarized — and Trump’s base support so solid — that the presidential election will likely be close no matter what happens with the economy.
-Ben White, writer of this article for Politico.
If Ben just hadn't written that last clause. You cannot sensibly write "no matter what happens with the economy," my God. The economy is KEY! Trump needs a V-shaped recovery. The other key is the body count. CDC is sticking with its 100,000-240,000 estimate but I believe that was set to make pretty sure Trump can cross the finish line and declare V-as-in-Victory. The University of Washington School of Medicine, March 31: “Nationwide, a total of 83,967 COVID-19 deaths (range of 36,614 to 152,582) are currently projected to occur through the epidemic’s first wave.” I LOVE the precision of these guys, don't you?
“He can certainly win if this turns into a fast recovery and he can point to an improving trend and take credit for it.”
-Scott Clemons, chief investment strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman. If Scott just hadn't said that last clause.
Trump and other White House advisers...know that the president’s future depends on a quick decline in new coronavirus cases and a fast snap back in the economy in the second half of the year.
-Better by Ben.
...
Most economists suggest the economic hit from the coronavirus will be vastly higher in the April jobs report, due out on May 8. That figure is likely to send shock waves through Washington and Wall Street and underscore the challenge Trump faces in avoiding a Hoover-style loss in November.
Her-bert Hoo-ver! Mus-so-li-ni! Mus-so-li-ni! Her-bert Hoover!
...
“If economists and the markets see a light at the end of the tunnel this fall, maybe Trump has a chance. But much will depend on whether we’ll get a quick recovery, and that’s far from certain. A more likely scenario is a modest, halting recovery that may not accelerate until early next year. But that would be too late for Trump.”
-Gregory Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist at AGF investments.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/03/trump-economic-record-coronavirus-163076
And now the view of November from January 2025!
Within a few months, it became clear that...Disease facilitates the spread of authoritarianism.
...
The pandemic provided a ready-made excuse for democratic governments around the world to obstruct opposition parties, ban public assemblies, suppress voting, quarantine cities, close borders, limit trade, strong-arm businesses, impose travel restrictions and censor hostile media outlets in the name of combating “false information.”
Where, in Amerika 2.0? Nope. Not happenin'.
Remarkably, the tactics met with comparatively little resistance, partly because they were advertised as only temporary, and partly because the concerns of civil libertarians paled next to calls to “flatten the curve.” But as the lockdowns of 2020 were extended from spring to summer and then to early fall, a process of normalization began to take hold.
In the U.S., Joe Biden accepted the Democratic nomination from his Delaware home after it became clear that holding a convention would pose unacceptable health risks. Effectively barred from campaigning by restrictions on public rallies...
Nope, not happenin'.
...(as well as fear among his aides that the 77-year old nominee might contract the virus), he sought to mount a virtual campaign against an incumbent who wielded the emergency powers of government to aid his re-election. Donald Trump handily won again in November.
As civil liberties receded, big government grew. Unprecedented unemployment meant unprecedented increases in Medicaid rolls, jobless benefits, housing assistance and food stamps. It was left to Trump to preside over an expansion of the welfare state the likes of which Bernie Sanders could only have dreamed...
Nor did things change much after the lockdowns were lifted, as people remained reluctant to venture into restaurants, shops and planes — and less able to afford them.
I think that is a strong point by the writer, Bret Stephens. Principally I think it's a strong point because I have thought the same thing. I just don't see a V-shaped economic recovery here. It's gonna be like a Black Friday Thanksgiving spree? No. No period. People are gonna be skittish. This has hit all of us HARD. We have been made to go from 60-0 mph in a second. Now, in a couple of months we're expected to go from 0-60 like this thing never happened? Nah-ah. Period. The other of the twin pillars is the casualties. People are not going to forget how many people were killed by Trump in this thing. I have thought 100,000 is certainly Trump's point of no return. Nice round number, 100,000. Six figures. BIG number. I'm not saying 83,000 is politically acceptable but voters are going to have personal no-return points and I think at some number, if it is reached, voters will simply say, Na-ah. No more of Trump. For all I know that number has already been reached, 7000+, but 100,000 some reaction to whatever the number of killed is but 100,000, 58,000 were killed in Vietnam, 58,000 killed killed LBJ, but 100,000 is just beyond the pale.
Millions of business failures and personal bankruptcies translated to tens of millions of loan and mortgage delinquencies, which in turn caused a financial crisis. Dozens of banks had to be nationalized outright, while the government took stakes in every industry it rescued. By the time a safe vaccine was finally available, the damage had been done.
Unless his election prediction is predicated on Trump installing a police state I don't see how Bret gets from this dystopian wasteland to "Trump handily won again in November." Joe Biden could be embalmed, if all of the rest of this happens Trump t'ain't gettin' reupped.
...
By 2023 Trump had finally built his wall, backed by bipartisan congressional support.
At the outset of the crisis it may have seemed that progressive parties stood to benefit politically. The opposite proved true.
Environmental concerns seemed like idle luxuries when gas was cheap and CO2 emissions plummeted along with economic activity. Demands for gun control and criminal-sentencing reform fell flat in the face of increasing levels of crime. Trump’s repeated calls for getting America “back to work” resonated with rural and suburban voters, who thought they had less to fear from the virus and tended to measure personal risk differently than urban elites.
...
For now, however, America awaits the inauguration of its 46th president, Michael Richard Pence.
Hey! He's writing from five years in the future, okay? Cut him a little slack.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/opinion/coronavirus-future.html
...
“In a clear-eyed, sober assessment, if on November 3, 2020 there are more than 100,000 dead and the unemployment rate is at 15 percent, Trump is not going to get reelected. We could resurrect George Washington and Thomas Jefferson and I doubt they could survive that either.”
-Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at financial firm RSM U.S.
...
“He can still resurrect his agenda — if the virus tapers off by summer.” But he’s in danger of losing in November, and the risks are growing daily. The public will not give him high grades for anticipating and dealing with this crisis. But he’s a master salesman and could spin a story by October that things are turning around. But the Democrats’ ads will just keep repeating his dismissive comments on the virus from this March.”
-said Gregory Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist at AGF investments.
Other analysts note that Trump’s odds of winning in online betting markets have actually risen during the coronavirus crisis. And the nation is now so polarized — and Trump’s base support so solid — that the presidential election will likely be close no matter what happens with the economy.
-Ben White, writer of this article for Politico.
If Ben just hadn't written that last clause. You cannot sensibly write "no matter what happens with the economy," my God. The economy is KEY! Trump needs a V-shaped recovery. The other key is the body count. CDC is sticking with its 100,000-240,000 estimate but I believe that was set to make pretty sure Trump can cross the finish line and declare V-as-in-Victory. The University of Washington School of Medicine, March 31: “Nationwide, a total of 83,967 COVID-19 deaths (range of 36,614 to 152,582) are currently projected to occur through the epidemic’s first wave.” I LOVE the precision of these guys, don't you?
“He can certainly win if this turns into a fast recovery and he can point to an improving trend and take credit for it.”
-Scott Clemons, chief investment strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman. If Scott just hadn't said that last clause.
Trump and other White House advisers...know that the president’s future depends on a quick decline in new coronavirus cases and a fast snap back in the economy in the second half of the year.
-Better by Ben.
...
Most economists suggest the economic hit from the coronavirus will be vastly higher in the April jobs report, due out on May 8. That figure is likely to send shock waves through Washington and Wall Street and underscore the challenge Trump faces in avoiding a Hoover-style loss in November.
Her-bert Hoo-ver! Mus-so-li-ni! Mus-so-li-ni! Her-bert Hoover!
...
“If economists and the markets see a light at the end of the tunnel this fall, maybe Trump has a chance. But much will depend on whether we’ll get a quick recovery, and that’s far from certain. A more likely scenario is a modest, halting recovery that may not accelerate until early next year. But that would be too late for Trump.”
-Gregory Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist at AGF investments.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/03/trump-economic-record-coronavirus-163076
And now the view of November from January 2025!
Within a few months, it became clear that...Disease facilitates the spread of authoritarianism.
...
The pandemic provided a ready-made excuse for democratic governments around the world to obstruct opposition parties, ban public assemblies, suppress voting, quarantine cities, close borders, limit trade, strong-arm businesses, impose travel restrictions and censor hostile media outlets in the name of combating “false information.”
Where, in Amerika 2.0? Nope. Not happenin'.
Remarkably, the tactics met with comparatively little resistance, partly because they were advertised as only temporary, and partly because the concerns of civil libertarians paled next to calls to “flatten the curve.” But as the lockdowns of 2020 were extended from spring to summer and then to early fall, a process of normalization began to take hold.
In the U.S., Joe Biden accepted the Democratic nomination from his Delaware home after it became clear that holding a convention would pose unacceptable health risks. Effectively barred from campaigning by restrictions on public rallies...
Nope, not happenin'.
...(as well as fear among his aides that the 77-year old nominee might contract the virus), he sought to mount a virtual campaign against an incumbent who wielded the emergency powers of government to aid his re-election. Donald Trump handily won again in November.
As civil liberties receded, big government grew. Unprecedented unemployment meant unprecedented increases in Medicaid rolls, jobless benefits, housing assistance and food stamps. It was left to Trump to preside over an expansion of the welfare state the likes of which Bernie Sanders could only have dreamed...
Nor did things change much after the lockdowns were lifted, as people remained reluctant to venture into restaurants, shops and planes — and less able to afford them.
I think that is a strong point by the writer, Bret Stephens. Principally I think it's a strong point because I have thought the same thing. I just don't see a V-shaped economic recovery here. It's gonna be like a Black Friday Thanksgiving spree? No. No period. People are gonna be skittish. This has hit all of us HARD. We have been made to go from 60-0 mph in a second. Now, in a couple of months we're expected to go from 0-60 like this thing never happened? Nah-ah. Period. The other of the twin pillars is the casualties. People are not going to forget how many people were killed by Trump in this thing. I have thought 100,000 is certainly Trump's point of no return. Nice round number, 100,000. Six figures. BIG number. I'm not saying 83,000 is politically acceptable but voters are going to have personal no-return points and I think at some number, if it is reached, voters will simply say, Na-ah. No more of Trump. For all I know that number has already been reached, 7000+, but 100,000 some reaction to whatever the number of killed is but 100,000, 58,000 were killed in Vietnam, 58,000 killed killed LBJ, but 100,000 is just beyond the pale.
Millions of business failures and personal bankruptcies translated to tens of millions of loan and mortgage delinquencies, which in turn caused a financial crisis. Dozens of banks had to be nationalized outright, while the government took stakes in every industry it rescued. By the time a safe vaccine was finally available, the damage had been done.
Unless his election prediction is predicated on Trump installing a police state I don't see how Bret gets from this dystopian wasteland to "Trump handily won again in November." Joe Biden could be embalmed, if all of the rest of this happens Trump t'ain't gettin' reupped.
...
By 2023 Trump had finally built his wall, backed by bipartisan congressional support.
At the outset of the crisis it may have seemed that progressive parties stood to benefit politically. The opposite proved true.
Environmental concerns seemed like idle luxuries when gas was cheap and CO2 emissions plummeted along with economic activity. Demands for gun control and criminal-sentencing reform fell flat in the face of increasing levels of crime. Trump’s repeated calls for getting America “back to work” resonated with rural and suburban voters, who thought they had less to fear from the virus and tended to measure personal risk differently than urban elites.
...
For now, however, America awaits the inauguration of its 46th president, Michael Richard Pence.
Hey! He's writing from five years in the future, okay? Cut him a little slack.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/opinion/coronavirus-future.html
