Monday, April 06, 2020

Oh My

On March 13 the New York Times explained Boris Johnson's government's handling of Covid-19. My first thought on reading this was that it reminded me so much of the crackpot theories of Adolph Hitler's "experts." My second thought was that it reminded me so much of the crackpot theories, like hydroxycoquine, of Donald Trump's "experts." Prescient article. Prescient.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson of Britain once said his political hero was the mayor in the film “Jaws,” praising him for defying mass hysteria to keep the beaches open after a constituent is eaten by a shark.

As the coronavirus now stampedes across Britain and much of the world, Mr. Johnson is heeding the same principle, spurning the mass closures that have become commonplace across Europe...gambling his political future on a more restrained approach.

...Mr. Johnson has largely kept Britain open...In effect, his government has said that mass closures will not halt the outbreak, and that exposing a large segment of the population will help build immunity and limit future infections.

[That is so incomprehensibly dumb I am surprised Trump didn't think of it first.]

That strategy has startled some epidemiologists, drawn criticism from a former health secretary and political ally, and prompted angry demands that Mr. Johnson’s government reveal more of its reasoning.

Cases of the coronavirus in Britain, held low for weeks...have now surged...

“There’s no other country in the world managing the epidemic in the same way,” Francois Balloux, an infectious disease epidemiologist at University College London, said of Britain’s approach. But, he said, “It’s not an insane decision. And it might actually pay off.”

The government is leaning heavily on skepticism in some scientific circles about the effectiveness of mass closures...and believe that large events are less dangerous for spreading the virus than more intimate gatherings at bars or at people’s homes.
...
It has also said that the measures it has taken, like asking people with persistent coughs and high temperatures to stay home for a week, will reduce the spread of the virus considerably.

[Like you, Trumpie! See how well it worked. You were right all along! When can I have my shot?]

But British advisers are also leaning on a more contentious theory: that exposing a large proportion of the population to the coronavirus could help people develop immunity, and put Britain in a better position to defend itself against the virus roaring back next winter.

Sir Patrick Vallance, England’s chief scientific adviser, said the government was looking “to build up some kind of herd immunity so more people are immune to this disease and we reduce the transmission.”

...Mr. Vallance has said that it would require roughly 60 percent of Britons to become infected, creating enough immunity in the population that a second surge in cases next winter would be less severe.

[Whaddya think, Trumpie? Your instincts are pretty good, right?]
...

“Herd immunity means 70 percent of people or so have been infected,” said Martin Hibberd, a professor of infectious diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. “In my mind, that’s not a desirable aim...

[DEEP STATE! DEEP STATE!]

Britain’s approach reflects the hyper-rationalist self-image of a prime minister who has not always hewed so closely to scientists in the past, as when he occasionally trafficked in discredited theories about climate change.

[DEEP STATE! DEEP STATE!]

...
Mr. Johnson has resisted other measures, like closing schools, restricting mass gatherings, steering people away from restaurants or bars and banning crowds from sporting events.

“They’re trying to walk this terrible balance between not alarming the public, not hurting the economy, but making sure you try to flatten this epidemic,” said Roy Anderson, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at Imperial College London. “Is it going to work? I’m not sure, to be honest.”
...
...Britain is effectively banking that its more modest restrictions will keep the outbreak limited until summer, scientists said.

By then, it hopes that the warmer weather will reduce further transmission — though virologists still do not know if that will hold true...

[Jeezus, this is everything Trump has been saying and doing.]
...
Some epidemiologists have also bristled at the government’s reliance on a private firm of behavioral scientists, known as the “nudge unit.” [Like Cucky Kushner's Slim Suit Gang!] That unit has helped shape the government’s approach to delaying any shutdowns until later in the course of the virus, on the theory that people will get bored of staying at home by the time the outbreak is at its peak and separation is most needed.

[So let's get 'em infected now and then when the Prime Minister dies we'll institute a lockdown. They won't be bored then!]
...
...the government’s approach may not rely enough on testing. Without knowing whether Britain is suffering a more concentrated outbreak, as in the north of Italy, or whether its death rate is as low as it believes, it is difficult to craft the right response.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/world/europe/coronavirus-britain-boris-johnson.html