312,076: Total confirmed Cases.
8,496: Killed by Trump.
14,997: Recovered from Trump Virus.
2.72%: Trump Killing efficiency. Rising still, up 0.15% from last night.
1.76: Trump Recovery-to-kill ratio. That is better than last night by an impressive 0.39%.
I did some math, against better judgment, to project how many cases would be necessary for Trump's Kill rate to get to his "very good job" of "only” 100,000. If I did the math right, at Trump's kill rate tonight 3,673,724 cases of Trump Virus would have to occur. 11.77 times the number of confirmed cases tonight. Does that seem likely to you? Are we going to get even to 1,000,000? Maybe. Maybe not. There has been no lessening of the daily exponential rise. Cuomo on the other hand said the death rate in New York has got about a week before peak. So, to state the obvious, I don't know. Fauci said "millions" will be infected. Well, one is not plural.
After it peaks in New York it will spread to domino states, Florida, Illinois, Michigan, where quarantines were not instituted as early nor as rigidly as in New York, but Trump Virus is not going to overwhelm California, where sensible restrictions have "leveled the curve" in the Bay area.
With New York nearing peak, California suppressing, are we going to get nearly twice as many cases from here on as we have tonight? My gut tells me that's doubtful. But let's take the round 1 mil number for convenience and multiply by 0.0272 (2.72%). That's "only" 27,200 deaths. That is probably a politically survivable number for Trump. Now, that's "first wave" killings.
If the virus finds vulnerable hosts and spreads at exponential rates in Deliverance, the unreconstructed, unprotected deep South, Alabama, Mississippi, etc. the number of these still first wave killings will rise. Nationally, we are a sieve, not hermetically sealed. But even so, Deliverance does not have the population base to cause the number of those killed to get to New York levels. The number of new cases continues to rise exponentially and did so again today. But this first wave is going to pass with, let's guesstimate 30,000 deaths. What will Trump do when the first wave passes? Will he release the economic hounds, send us all back to work? He wants to do that to save the economy. Will that extend the "first wave" or by their definition do new cases after the first wave when we're sent back to work constitute “second wave." All of the experts predict an inevitable second wave but Dr. Fauci has said they will be loaded for bear and will "crush it." That sounds reasonable to me but only if the first wave is clearly stopped before we resume national life. If the first wave has not leveled and Trump acts precipitately that, to me, is just extending the first wave by sending sick people back out into troubled waters. And for all of Dr. Fauci’s confidence in a second wave "crush" that confidence has to be contingent on a first wave petering out. And, truth be told Fauci has not exactly been Nostradamus so far with Trump Epidemic.
The infestation rate is still rising in Spain, second highest number of cases. The graphs for Italy, Germany, Iran and the UK all have similar arithmetical increases to Spain's. France though moved about 80 degrees straight up today, like a rocket launch. I am not feeling "crushed" by hope but those numbers do not provide it and only a fool would trust Trump to do the wise and prudent thing, but I do have faith and hope in Dr. Fauci. It hope it is not misplaced.
8,496: Killed by Trump.
14,997: Recovered from Trump Virus.
2.72%: Trump Killing efficiency. Rising still, up 0.15% from last night.
1.76: Trump Recovery-to-kill ratio. That is better than last night by an impressive 0.39%.
I did some math, against better judgment, to project how many cases would be necessary for Trump's Kill rate to get to his "very good job" of "only” 100,000. If I did the math right, at Trump's kill rate tonight 3,673,724 cases of Trump Virus would have to occur. 11.77 times the number of confirmed cases tonight. Does that seem likely to you? Are we going to get even to 1,000,000? Maybe. Maybe not. There has been no lessening of the daily exponential rise. Cuomo on the other hand said the death rate in New York has got about a week before peak. So, to state the obvious, I don't know. Fauci said "millions" will be infected. Well, one is not plural.
After it peaks in New York it will spread to domino states, Florida, Illinois, Michigan, where quarantines were not instituted as early nor as rigidly as in New York, but Trump Virus is not going to overwhelm California, where sensible restrictions have "leveled the curve" in the Bay area.
With New York nearing peak, California suppressing, are we going to get nearly twice as many cases from here on as we have tonight? My gut tells me that's doubtful. But let's take the round 1 mil number for convenience and multiply by 0.0272 (2.72%). That's "only" 27,200 deaths. That is probably a politically survivable number for Trump. Now, that's "first wave" killings.
If the virus finds vulnerable hosts and spreads at exponential rates in Deliverance, the unreconstructed, unprotected deep South, Alabama, Mississippi, etc. the number of these still first wave killings will rise. Nationally, we are a sieve, not hermetically sealed. But even so, Deliverance does not have the population base to cause the number of those killed to get to New York levels. The number of new cases continues to rise exponentially and did so again today. But this first wave is going to pass with, let's guesstimate 30,000 deaths. What will Trump do when the first wave passes? Will he release the economic hounds, send us all back to work? He wants to do that to save the economy. Will that extend the "first wave" or by their definition do new cases after the first wave when we're sent back to work constitute “second wave." All of the experts predict an inevitable second wave but Dr. Fauci has said they will be loaded for bear and will "crush it." That sounds reasonable to me but only if the first wave is clearly stopped before we resume national life. If the first wave has not leveled and Trump acts precipitately that, to me, is just extending the first wave by sending sick people back out into troubled waters. And for all of Dr. Fauci’s confidence in a second wave "crush" that confidence has to be contingent on a first wave petering out. And, truth be told Fauci has not exactly been Nostradamus so far with Trump Epidemic.
The infestation rate is still rising in Spain, second highest number of cases. The graphs for Italy, Germany, Iran and the UK all have similar arithmetical increases to Spain's. France though moved about 80 degrees straight up today, like a rocket launch. I am not feeling "crushed" by hope but those numbers do not provide it and only a fool would trust Trump to do the wise and prudent thing, but I do have faith and hope in Dr. Fauci. It hope it is not misplaced.
