Dr. Anthony Fauci and others testified remotely before Congress today. According to the New York Times Fauci said:
“The next couple of weeks are going to be critical in our ability to address those surges we are seeing in Florida, Texas, Arizona, and other states."
...
While deaths from the virus have been dropping over the past few days, he added, it is too soon to tell whether the numbers mean anything, saying that “deaths always lag considerably behind cases,” and that the trend may reverse itself.
I understand Deaths are going to lag behind Cases, of course they’re going to lag behind Cases, you can’t die of the goddamned thing before you get it. What I have never understood is this:
Here’s the Cases graph from the Times
Show me where there is a even a "lagged" correlation. Show me where there is any correlation at all!
“The next couple of weeks are going to be critical in our ability to address those surges we are seeing in Florida, Texas, Arizona, and other states."
...
While deaths from the virus have been dropping over the past few days, he added, it is too soon to tell whether the numbers mean anything, saying that “deaths always lag considerably behind cases,” and that the trend may reverse itself.
I understand Deaths are going to lag behind Cases, of course they’re going to lag behind Cases, you can’t die of the goddamned thing before you get it. What I have never understood is this:
Those are almost precisely opposite trend lines!
I don’t know what of the first part of the sentence above is what Dr. Fauci said or what the Times wrote but it is just NOT TRUE that “deaths have been dropping over the past few days”--the seven-day Deaths average line has been dropping since early April with the exception of one circus tent-like
rise at the very end of May.
