March 27, 1:32 pm:
Hospitalizations are going in the same direction as Cases did. On Monday H's were -17% and Cases fell into single digits, -7%. I wrote then that that was an ominous sign, as it turned out to be. On Wednesday Cases were -7%, H's -13% and I predicted that in a day or two Cases would be in +% territory. On Thursday Cases were flat. Yesterday, Cases were +3% and +4% and H's -10% and -8%. Today, preliminarily, C's are up to +8 and H's up to -7%. I predict that, just as yesterday, the final day's percentage for H's will be up from -7%. This is the last day of the full reporting week, which makes predictions over the weekend more uncertain. I will hazard a semi-informed prediction that when the final numbers come out Monday, H's will be +% over 14 days. As C's and H's rise so too will Deaths, the decline in which has lessened this week.
President Biden has a tiger by the tail with this thing and vaccinations will not let him hold it. He is going to have to impose the restrictions he can. Air travel should again be cut back. That's about all he can do on his own. The other, infinitely more effective mitigants, masking, schools and restaurants not reopening, he can only use his bully pulpit as suasion and the the public is sick of them. Eleven months ago I analogized lockdowns to a one-way street with multiple exits but no reentry ramps. Vax will take time that POJO does not have. Over 100,000 more people will die by July 23, the NYT new estimate (down from July 29), the date that the Times' predicts 90% of the country will be vaccinated (herd immunity level). 548k Americans have today been killed by COVID. By herd immunity date it will be 650k unless the president acts vigorously and now.
Full post on COVID-19 BIDEN+65 when data updated.
